Last week, the UK鈥檚 Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) released its latest data on international student enrolments. The UK hosted nearly 686,000 international students for the 2024/25 academic year, a decline of 6% over the previous academic year.¹ This is the second straight academic year in which total enrolment figures in the UK fell, and was a larger year-over-year percentage point drop than what occurred in 2023/24. This is a trend we predicted in last year鈥檚 HESA data analysis:

[The 2024/25] enrolment data may chart an even larger drop [than 2023/24]. That鈥檚 because main applicant student visa submissions fell by 12% in the 2024 calendar year.
鈥� 老九品茶 Insights Team, April 2025.²

 
The UK鈥檚 academic years are from August of the previous year to July of the given year.³ This means the declining enrolments in 2024/25 reflect the impact of tightened dependant rules, questions about post-study work opportunities, and , which were ongoing concerns throughout the 2024 calendar year.

Here, we鈥檙e unpacking what the latest HESA data reveals about international postgraduate students in the UK during the 2024/25 academic year, and what early visa trends suggest institutions may see next.

Postgraduate Studies Drove Overall Enrolment Declines in the UK in 2024/25

In every academic year since 2021/22, postgraduate studies have accounted for at least 55% of all international student enrolments in the UK. Indeed, 57% of international students in the UK pursued postgraduate studies in 2024/25. And it is this study level that drove the overall enrolment decline of 6%:

Nearly 389,000 international students pursued postgraduate studies in the UK in 2024/25. This was 10% lower than the previous academic year, and 15% below the high-water mark of 2022/23. This trend is in line with what we predicted we鈥檇 see during our analysis of that record figure:

[W]e do expect that much of the decline in visa issuances will be at the postgraduate level, since these older students are more likely to be impacted by new restrictions on dependants than the typically younger students at the undergraduate level.
鈥� 老九品茶 Insights Team, September 2024.⁴

 
We鈥檙e expecting next year鈥檚 data for the 2025/26 academic year will show a bit more stability. That鈥檚 because visa data is often a leading indicator of what institutions can expect to see in their classrooms, and we鈥檝e forecasted that about 415,000 main applicants will be issued a UK study visa in 2025.⁵ This would be an increase of 5% over the previous calendar year. And that鈥檚 on top of the 9% year-over-year growth in applications processed from main applicants in Q4 2025. These visa trends suggest that demand ticked upward on the macro level.

However, macro-level trends can mask the reality of individual institutions. In December 2025, the British Universities International Liaison Association (BUILA) released its annual recruitment data. In it, 61% of universities who responded to BUILA鈥檚 survey reported a decrease in postgraduate international enrolments for courses starting in September that year.⁶

Additionally, our analysis of the UK鈥檚 provisional monthly application data found that the number of main applicants who applied for a student visa in Q4 2025 fell by 15% compared to Q4 2024. This signals that international student demand softened at the end of the year, likely the first sign of how the UK鈥檚 is affecting the education sector.

All of this points to a 2025/26 intake that may rebound in aggregate, yet ultimately remain uneven across the sector. For institutions, this means treating national momentum as a backdrop, and building approaches around where demand is actually holding up by course, study level, and student population.

Largest Postgraduate Enrolment Dips Are From Student Populations Heavily Impacted by Dependants Ban

Shortly after the UK government announced its intention to limit the ability of international students to bring dependants into the country with them in summer 2023, we flagged the countries with high dependant-to-main-applicant ratios. This ratio captures the number of dependants for every primary student visa issued, and student populations with a high ratio would be the most likely to be impacted by the government鈥檚 new policy. In our 2023 analysis, we highlighted Nigeria, Sri Lanka, Ghana, Bangladesh, and Iran, which all had ratios over 0.5, as well as India due to the sheer volume of its dependants.

Nigeria and Sri Lanka were the only two countries in 2022/23 that were issued more dependant study visas than primary study visas.
鈥� 老九品茶 Insights Team, August 2023.⁷

 
During the 2024/25 academic year, Nigeria and Sri Lanka saw the largest year-over-year enrolment declines at the postgraduate level,⁸ while the four other noted countries also experienced some of the largest enrolment drops:

The number of Nigerian and Sri Lankan students enrolled in postgraduate studies in the UK dropped 39% and 36% year-over-year, respectively. India (-13%), Bangladesh (-19%), Ghana (-14%), and Iran (-25%) also experienced significant year-over-year declines.

However, student populations with high dependant-to-main-applicant visa ratios weren’t the only downturns. In fact, enrolments fell for 15 of the UK鈥檚 20 largest postgraduate student populations. But only Italy (-23%) and France (-19%) dropped at a comparable rate to those with historically high dependants ratios, aligning with a multi-year trend of fewer EU-based students pursuing an education in the UK following Brexit.

These results underscore how policy changes can have multi-year impacts, while also illustrating how visa data can help sector leaders anticipate where enrolment pressures will emerge next. Tracking how application and issuance levels shift also provides early visibility into how quickly demand can change. This awareness can be used to support more proactive, strategic planning, such as aligning targets and investments with the student populations most likely to shape future outcomes. Proactive strategy will also help institutions to remain compliant with the new BCA thresholds outlined in the 2025 White Paper.

Eyes on Research-Based Postgraduate Enrolment Spikes

One development in the postgraduate sector to watch is the rising demand for research courses. As postgraduate research programmes aren’t subject to the dependants ban, it’s likely some students shifted their target courses. In 2024/25, nearly 51,000 international students pursued this level of study, which was 7% higher than the previous academic year. Total non-EU student enrolments were up 11%, while EU student enrolments were down 12%:

The outsized year-over-year increases in research-based postgraduate enrolments鈥攅specially among student populations from Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, and India鈥攆it closely with the markets most disrupted by the dependants restriction on taught postgraduate routes. That alignment has already attracted scrutiny: reporting in late 2025 indicated the Home Office was considering changes to the current exemption for master’s-by-research-style programmes amid concerns about recruitment practices and rapid growth at a small subset of providers.⁹

For institutions, the practical takeaway here is to manage growth in research programmes with extra care. That includes tightening your team’s oversight of agent and marketing messaging, making sure admissions processes assess genuine research fit and readiness, while also scenario-planning for potential changes to dependant eligibility.

And for international student advisors, the key is to centre academic fit in conversations with students interested in these courses. Also, ensure you鈥檙e setting clear expectations that dependant rules can change and should never be treated as a guaranteed feature of a programme.

How 老九品茶 Helps Students and Institutions Succeed in the UK

Enrolment patterns in the UK over the 2024/25 academic year reinforce how quickly demand can shift in response to policy and affordability pressure. With tighter compliance expectations on the horizon, institutions and advisers will need stronger student readiness, clearer academic fit, and more frequent in-cycle monitoring to avoid being caught off guard. This preparation is especially relevant where growth is concentrating in areas already attracting added scrutiny, such as in research-based postgraduate courses.

老九品茶 supports your work by strengthening course selection and application quality through our platform. Our AI-powered matching helps advisers steer students toward programmes where they鈥檙e more likely to succeed, while our quality controls and required documentation checks promote stronger, more consistent submissions. We also provide data-backed insights on demand and visa outcomes, helping institutions adjust recruitment focus and student support as conditions change through the cycle.

Want to take your student recruitment goals to the next level? Connect with our UK commercial partnerships team or reach out to your Account Director to discuss strategies tailored to your needs.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. All enrolment data courtesy of .

2. 老九品茶 Insights, For Second Straight Year, International Student Volumes Surpassed Domestic Student Volumes in UK Postgraduate Studies. April 30, 2025.

3. For example, the 2024/25 academic year spans August 2024 to July 2025.

4. 老九品茶 Insights, UK International Enrolment Reached High-Water Mark in the 2022/23 Academic Year. September 16, 2024.

5. All visa application data is sourced from the unless otherwise noted. Projections may be subject to change based on changing conditions and source data.

6. BUILA surveyed members in October and November 2025 and received 69 responses.

7. 老九品茶 Insights, Predicting the Impact of the UK鈥檚 Dependants Policy Change on International Students. August 15, 2023.

8. Minimum 300 enrolments.

9. ICEF, . December 11, 2025.

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Last year, overall international student numbers climbed, highlighting these students’ determination for a world-class education even amid rising costs and often less hospitable policy environments. In 2026, student pathways continue to be meaningfully shaped by government updates, affordability concerns, and broader social movements. Our 2026 Trends Report highlighted a number of shifts informing the sector. Below, we’re leveraging the latest information available to build off of this report and give you the insights you need to effectively support student success this year.

Here are some of our top international education sector predictions for 2026.

1. International Education Will Remain in the Spotlight

We expect immigration to remain a top-of-mind issue in many Anglophone destinations in 2026, and for it to continue to affect international education policies in these countries.

International enrolments are projected to reach 8.5 million worldwide by 2030.¹ Preparing for these outbound students is a growing priority for institutions and governments in many destinations, whether in the form of building adequate student housing, revising course options to align with student demand and job market needs, or providing support services on campus.

Institutions across the sector are hopeful that the increased level of public attention on post-secondary education will translate to increased funding or more sustainable funding models. In many study destinations, colleges and universities are collectively lobbying for major increases in operating funding after years of frozen tuition and constrained public funding led to budget cuts, layoffs, and program reductions.² This isn’t unique to any single geography; many institutions are weathering increased student demand with less funding, or are restricted by investment tied to specific initiatives.

2. Evolving US Policy Environment Shifts Student Inflows

Despite a mid-year pause in visa processing and highly publicized visa revocations in 2025, many international students’ resolve to study in the US remains. However, as these news stories were shared, some students’ outlook on the US shifted: in 老九品茶’s Fall 2025 Pulse Surveys, 17% of students and 18% of international student advisors strongly agreed the US was an open, safe, and welcoming destination for international students.

If the current volatility continues, more international students may explore alternative options for starting or completing their degree. New international student enrolment dipped by 7% year-over-year in the 2024/25 academic year,³ but many US institutions continue to offer excellent learning and research opportunities for international students, and institutional efforts are underway to stabilize enrolment in 2025/26.

Immigration Guidelines to Redirect Some International Students

Meanwhile, evolving immigration policies, such as adjustments to H-1B visas,⁴ also affect student outlooks. Furthermore, while the US government’s January 1 travel guidance has introduced new restrictions on the issuance of US student visas for individuals from 39 countries, it also prompts prospective students to explore a wider range of global educational opportunities.⁵

For instance, Nigeria, which was the eighth most common place of origin for international students in the US over the most recent academic year, is now seeking new destinations for its talented students.⁶ While current Nigerian students in the US will maintain their visas, prospective international students from Nigeria are poised to enrich other education systems. To illustrate just one impact of this measure, consider that nearly 22,000 Nigerian students were enrolled in studies in the US in 2024/25, and the U.S. Department of Commerce estimated the economic impact of this student population in 2024 was US$889 million.

As the enrolment number above includes students at all points in their studies, it鈥攁nd the related research and innovation metrics, along with the economic support鈥攚on’t disappear from the US overnight. But, over the next few years, these students’ absence will affect the communities and campuses they would have otherwise joined.

3. Further Diversification of Popular Study Destinations

Restrictive policy shifts in major Anglophone destinations contribute to international students’ rising interest in a wider range of study countries. And whether one refers to the expanded list as the Big 12, 14, or 15, international student populations in these destinations will likely continue to grow through 2026.

For example, almost 75% of German universities welcomed equal or higher numbers of new international students over the most recent academic year.⁷ Additionally, survey results from the Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst (DAAD) found that 46% of universities planned to increase the number of English-taught courses they offered year-over-year.

Common themes across other study destinations include strategic investment in their higher education sectors and responsiveness to international trends. These countries are setting ambitious goals and reaching them, sometimes ahead of schedule, as South Korea did by surpassing its target of 300,000 international students two years early.⁸

Other governments are facilitating student pathways to welcome students impacted by policy changes elsewhere: the EduBridge to Spain initiative allows students who are either enrolled in or planning to enrol in American universities to transfer their credits and secure acceptance into Spanish higher education institutions.⁹ While user data on the EduBridge program is forthcoming, targeted programs like these are often successful in attracting bright students and researchers.

These are just a few examples of how emerging study destinations are preparing for the next wave of student mobility and positioning themselves as attractive, stable options. The main takeaway here is that a large number of countries are ready to welcome the skilled students who feel turned away by restrictive policies in the major Anglophone destinations, and that the 鈥淏ig Four鈥� will likely be a misnomer within the next few years.

4. Affordability and Career-Readiness Top Concerns for Students

In 老九品茶’s Fall 2025 Pulse Survey, we asked our network of international student advisors how they expected the sector to evolve. This response highlights students’ changing priorities and the careful balance the sector must strike:

Looking ahead, three clear shifts stand out in international education. First, the demand is increasingly policy driven. For Nigerian students, immigration rules matter far more than university rankings. Second, new destinations are emerging. Ireland, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Mauritius, and the UAE may not carry the prestige of the UK or US, but their friendlier policies make them serious contenders. Third, the financial burden is forcing more creative solutions, including a turn toward scholarships, tuition discounts, and even blended or remote programs that allow students to earn international credentials without shouldering the full cost of relocation.

Respondents to the Fall 2025 老九品茶 Student Pulse Survey were similarly focused on affordability and flexibility:

Only 12% of students noted that affordability wasn’t affecting their study abroad plans. The remaining respondents shared that they were considering a combination of alternate destinations, different program options or durations, or employment options to afford their studies.

Graduate Outcomes Prioritized by Many International Students

Meanwhile, these students are graduating into a competitive global job market. The report from the National Association of Colleges + Employers (NACE) noted that 45% of surveyed US employers characterized the job market for new graduates as “fair.” This is a downgrade compared to the previous four years, when the plurality of employers ranked the job market as “good.” In the UK, employers received over 1 million applications for around 17,000 graduate vacancies in 2024. This marked the highest level of competition for graduate-level roles since the Institute of Student Employers started collecting this data in 1991.¹⁰

Intensified competition from their peers, as well as the replacement of many entry-level roles with automation, means that graduate engagement rates are becoming more than just numbers to prospective students. Graduate engagement is a measurable indicator of whether the investment required for an international education is worth spending at a specific institution. While this is only one dimension of students’ decision-making, institutions should proactively highlight offerings that can jumpstart a new grad’s career, whether it’s their graduates’ success stories, alumni support services, or industry partnerships. A sharper focus on return-on-education-investment and affordability is expected to persist through 2026.

5. TNE Promises Flexibility and Increased Access

Like international students, academic institutions are also adapting to fluctuating policy and a rising cost of living. Outdated funding models, widespread demands, and limited income sources continue to affect many institutions’ operations. For some institutions, transnational education opportunities (TNE) broaden access to international student audiences while providing more diversified funding.

TNE, which encompasses branch campuses, distance learning, joint education institutions and programmes (JEIs and JEPs), and more, is already a well-established approach. Still, it felt omnipresent in the back half of 2025, not least as Indian and Chinese governments updated their guidelines around transnational education.

Both countries increased their regulatory flexibility to allow more international universities to establish branch campuses. In September 2025, China approved a total of 50 new JEPs and JEIs, with the UK, Russia, and the US securing the highest numbers of approvals.¹¹ Meanwhile, nearly 20 institutions from Australia, Italy, the UK, and the US announced branch campuses in India in 2025. The UK’s University of Southampton was the first of this cohort to open, last August.¹²

We expect to see more institutions updating what their international partnerships and learning opportunities look like in 2026. One of the highest-profile examples of TNE on the world stage is its inclusion as a key element for increasing the value of the UK’s education exports in the government’s new .

Upcoming 老九品茶 Events and Insights

2026 will present many opportunities and challenges for teams across the international education sector. To effectively support student success, strategic planning and agile adaptation to the latest trends is critical. At 老九品茶, we’re committed to helping all our partners and the sector at large build the new paths forward.

One of the most exciting ways we’ll do this will be in Delhi this March, where we’ll connect with our network of international student advisors and academic institutions at TRW 2026. This flagship two-day event is a great opportunity to learn what’s next for the sector and meet similarly-minded changemakers.

Want to join us? .

We also encourage you to stay connected by following 老九品茶’s channels on and . And, for direct commentary on how these trends may affect the international education sector, we invite you to , on LinkedIn.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. The PIE, . December 30, 2026.

2. Global News, “.” January 21, 2026.

3. IIE, . November 17, 2025.

4. Financial Express, “.” January 15, 2026.

5. NAFSA, . January 15, 2026.

6. IIE, . November 17, 2025.

7. DAAD, . December 19, 2025.

8. The PIE, “.” October 31, 2025.

9. Language Magazine, “.” September 1, 2025.

10. Euro News, “” October 14, 2025.

11. British Council, . September 24, 2025.

12. The PIE, “” December 24, 2025.

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The Institute of International Education (IIE)鈥檚 , released last November, showed that the United States hosted its highest total number of international students ever in the 2024/25 academic year. This builds on the trends of the 2023/24 academic year, the previous record. However, was again a major contributor to this milestone, as more international graduates stayed in the US after completing their studies to gain work experience. In fact, international student enrolments stayed flat in 2024/25 versus 2023/24.

Against this backdrop, we鈥檙e taking a closer look at the latest US enrolment patterns, including how they differ across undergraduate and graduate study levels. We鈥檒l also explore what the latest shifts suggest for enrolment levels in different fields of study. Together, these insights can help institutions in the US plan their recruitment strategies for 2026 and beyond.

OPT Attracted Record-High Number of Participants in 2024/25

Nearly 1.2 million international students studied or participated in Optional Practical Training (OPT) in the US in 2024/25. This represents a growth of nearly 5% over the previous academic year:

Though the total number of international students in the US rose 5% year-over-year, that growth was driven by a 21% increase in OPT placements. There were over 294,000 OPT participants in 2024/25, while the 884,000 international enrolments matched the total of the previous year.

The rise in pre- and post-graduation temporary employment demonstrates strong student interest in gaining practical work experience. 88% of respondents to our Fall 2025 Recruitment Partner Pulse Survey cited post-study work opportunities as a student priority when considering where to study. In fact, for the first time ever in our pulse surveys, respondents put post-study work opportunities nearly on par with the long-standing top priority, cost of studying (88% vs. 91%).

This means that, moving forward, the institutions that can demonstrate clear work-integrated learning opportunities and success stories to prospective students will be the ones that differentiate themselves from their competition, both domestically and across the globe.

To learn more about how students are responding to new economic realities and how institutions are facilitating student success beyond the classroom, check out the A More Discerning Student section from our 2026 Trends Report.

New International Enrolment in the US Declines in 2024/25

While OPT growth lifted the overall international student total in 2024/25, new international enrolment moved in the opposite direction. There were about 277,000 new international enrolments across the US in 2024/25, representing a year-over-year decline of 7%:

New enrolments dropped most noticeably at the graduate level, with a year-over-year decline of 15%. US campuses welcomed 25,000 fewer new international graduate students in 2024/25 compared to the previous academic year. This ended a three-year run of year-over-year growth at the graduate level. The non-degree level also saw fewer new enrolments, falling 4% over this period.

Conversely, nearly 99,000 new international students were enrolled at the undergraduate level in 2024/25. This was 5% higher than the previous academic year.

The Student Populations Who Pursued STEM Opportunities in the US the Most in 2024/25

Science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) occupations in the US are projected to grow 8% from 2024 to 2034.² This is nearly triple the projected pace for non-STEM roles. Additionally, STEM roles offered a 2024 median annual wage of about US$104,000, more than double the non-STEM median.

These strong career outcomes continue to make STEM pathways appealing, especially to students from the following populations:

Students from India, Bangladesh, Iran, and Nepal showed the strongest concentration in STEM. In 2024/25, over 70% of students from each country pursued STEM opportunities (including OPT). Large year-over-year swings are less common in the field of study data because OPT is included in these totals. This means the distributions incorporate students who remain in the US after graduation, potentially for up to three years, rather than only enrolments.³

That said, each major student population gravitates toward different fields within STEM to different degrees. For instance, 43% of Indian students participated in math and computer science fields, well ahead of other major student groups. Nepalese students followed, with 30% pursuing these fields.

Nepalese students were also highly interested in physical and life sciences. In 2024/25, 16% of Nepalese students pursued this field. This was again the second-highest share among the US鈥檚 largest student populations, behind only Nigerian students (18%). Both countries paired high physical and life sciences participation with relatively strong interest in health. 10% of students from Nepal and Nigeria pursued health-related fields in 2024/25.

Iranian and Bangladeshi students, on the other hand, clustered more heavily in engineering, with 44% and 34% of these student populations pursuing engineering, respectively.

Last year鈥檚 report showed that the top three STEM OPT employers in 2024 were Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Read our full analysis of last year鈥檚 SEVIS by the Numbers report to learn how STEM talent has powered the American international education sector.

How US Institutions Can Empower the Next Generation of Global Talent and Remain Competitive on a Global Scale

This year’s Open Doors data reinforces that American academic institutions can鈥檛 rely on broad, steady-state assumptions in their recruitment planning. As student priorities continue to shift, institutions benefit most when they use enrolment and field-of-study trends to guide where to focus and how to position programs. Monitoring these changes year over year helps recruitment teams respond earlier and stay competitive in a crowded global market.

Given the continued strong interest in STEM and rising OPT participation, institutions in the US benefit from moving beyond general claims about 鈥渃areer outcomes.鈥� Recruitment materials like program pages should directly connect specific disciplines to work-integrated learning, employer connections, and post-study options. Likewise, institutions can differentiate themselves by illustrating how they uniquely support students鈥� success inside and outside of the classroom.

These efforts matter because many students continue to weigh destinations through a return-on-investment lens. Clear, program-specific guidance on work experience opportunities and post-study options can help students assess fit, which builds clarity during their decision-making process.

Looking ahead, institutions that monitor enrolment signals early and translate them into more targeted program positioning will be better placed to sustain international recruitment outcomes. In a competitive sector, specificity and consistency in how institutions communicate student success can meaningfully improve outcomes for both institutions and their students.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. All data courtesy of the Institute of International Education (IIE) .

2. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, . Data is based on the last modification date of August 28, 2025.

3. While the standard duration of OPT is one year of full-time employment, graduates from eligible STEM programs may receive up to two years of additional post-completion OPT through the .

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In the 2026 Trends Report, we projected that the United Kingdom would issue around 400,000 study visas to main applicants in 2025, about the same as in 2024. But with full Q3 data and application data through November now available, we鈥檙e revising this projection upward. We鈥檙e expecting approximately 415,000 main applicants will be issued a UK student visa in 2025, an increase of 5% over 2024.¹

However, while visa data shows that 2025 was a year of stability relative to 2024 at the macro level, performance was a lot more variable at the institutional level. The British Universities International Liaison Association (BUILA) released its annual recruitment data in December, which showed that 61% of universities surveyed reported a decrease in postgraduate international enrolments for courses starting in September 2025.²

In other words, macro-level results can mask meaningful impacts that institutions are experiencing. And in 2026, the operating environment will tighten as new Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) thresholds raise expectations across key metrics tied to student sponsorship.³ Institutions will need more predictable conversion from offer to arrival stages and stronger support after enrolment to protect student success outcomes and maintain compliance.

Against this backdrop, institutions need also clearer visibility into where demand is strengthening and which student populations have stronger visa grant rates. Read on for the latest demand and visa outcome trends, and how 老九品茶 can support institutions in navigating the new compliance landscape without sacrificing campus diversity.

UK on Pace to Issue 5% More Main Applicant Student Visas in 2025 than in 2024

The UK issued nearly 373,000 student visas to main applicants during the first nine months of 2025. This was a 7% increase over the same period in 2024:

In 2023 and 2024, most main applicant student visa issuances were already recorded by the end of September. In fact, 89% of the full-year total in 2023 was issued between January and September, followed by 87% in 2024. While the macro picture is largely defined by this point, Q4 still helps shape where the year ultimately lands, and can determine whether 2025 finishes close to the previous year or ends somewhat higher.

Early signals point to some softening late in the year. Provisional monthly application data shows 48,900 main applicants applied for a student visa in Q4 2025, a 15% decrease compared to the Q4 2024. Assuming Q4 2025鈥檚 student visa grant rate matches that of Q4 2024, we鈥檙e projecting that around 415,000 international students will be issued a main applicant UK study visa for the full 2025 calendar-year.

Which Student Populations Saw UK Study Visa Success in 2025?

For institutions planning 2026 intakes under tighter BCA expectations, understanding which student populations are seeing consistently strong outcomes can support confident recruitment planning and protect campus diversity. The good news is that, through the first nine months of 2025, 16 of the UK鈥檚 top 20 student populations exceeded a 95% visa success rate:

Over 86,000 Chinese students were issued a UK study visa between January and September 2025. While this accounted for nearly one in every four student visa issuances over this period, it was an overall decline of 15% compared to the same months in 2024. Many Chinese students are after China heavily invested into its higher education system, expanding students鈥� access to top-tier facilities and competitive academic programs. Similarly, more Chinese students are , including Singapore, Japan, and Malaysia, due to these destinations’ geographical proximity and relatively more affordable cost. These students’ shifting outlook reinforces the need for UK institutions to both sharpen their value proposition for Chinese students and broaden enrolment growth to sustain campus diversity.

The good news is that demand for studying in the UK grew across many other parts of the world in 2025. After China, the next eight largest student populations all saw year-over-year growth in issuances, led by India. India鈥檚 85,000 issuances nearly matched China鈥檚 volume, and its grant rate remained high at 97%. Another standout was Nigeria, where issuances grew by 78% with a 95% success rate.

India and Nigeria show that strong demand growth can coincide with high visa success rates. But outcomes were more variable across other fast-growing markets in 2025, namely Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Ghana鈥攖he only top 20 student populations with grant rates below 90%. Looking ahead to 2026, stronger coordination between institutions, students, and student advisors will be essential to improve application quality and readiness in order to ensure students are clearly demonstrating their genuine intent to study.

老九品茶 Students Have Strong UK Grant Rates

For the 2025 intake, 95% of international students using 老九品茶 to apply for their UK study visa were successful.⁴ Overall, our students have met or exceeded this approval rate for the past four intake years, with results that often outperform the all-market average:

We noted above that Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Ghana were the UK鈥檚 only top 20 student populations with visa grant rates below 90% during the first nine months of 2025. And it鈥檚 here that 老九品茶鈥檚 commitment to application quality really shines. 97% of Pakistani students who applied for their UK study visa for the 2025 intake were successful. For comparison, the all-market grant rate for Pakistani students was just 81%, a difference of 16 percentage points.

Similarly, 90% of Bangladeshi and 100% of Ghanaian students who applied for their UK study visa for the 2025 intake were successful, differences of 13 and 11 percentage points, respective

How 老九品茶 Delivers Stronger Student Success Outcomes in the UK

老九品茶鈥檚 advantage starts with AI-powered matching. By steering students toward courses that align with their academic journey, our platform supports stronger choices and more compelling applications. When students apply to courses that genuinely fit, it becomes easier to build a strong application.

From there, 老九品茶 helps partners deliver higher-quality submissions at scale. Built-in validation steps and guided workflows identify missing items early, improve documentation quality, and reduce preventable errors. This combination of better-fit matching and stronger file preparation helps institutions protect student success outcomes and maintain predictability in the enrolment process.

Preparing for New Student Pathways in 2026

The data from the first nine months of 2025 shows that the UK鈥檚 international education sector remained fairly stable compared to 2024. However, with new BCA thresholds, pathways for student success in 2026 will require stronger student readiness and clearer alignment between their course choices, study plans, and career goals.

For institutions, the risk is that tighter expectations push recruitment toward a narrower set of familiar populations. That may feel safer in the short term, but it can limit campus diversity and leave universities more exposed to sudden demand shocks. The encouraging signal from 2025 is that strong outcomes were not confined to one or two markets, which creates room to broaden enrolment while staying focused on quality.

This is where 老九品茶 can help. Our AI-powered matching technology supports better-fit course choices, and our quality controls help student advisors build stronger, more complete applications. 老九品茶鈥檚 data-backed insights also help institutions identify where demand is rising and where visa outcomes are strongest, so support can be targeted where it has the greatest impact.

We also strengthen performance across our partner network with tools like , which gives student advisors clearer expectations and practical guidance that improves their readiness and consistency through custom training modules. Combined, these supports help more international students arrive prepared to succeed, while helping institutions protect compliance expectations without sacrificing the diverse intakes that underpin the UK鈥檚 global education reputation.

Interested in how 老九品茶 can support your student recruitment goals for 2026? Reach out to our UK commercial partnerships team or connect with your Account Director to discuss strategies tailored to your direct needs.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. All data is sourced from the unless otherwise noted. Projections may be subject to change based on changing conditions and source data.

2. BUILA surveyed members in October and November 2025 and received 69 responses.

3. Under the new BCA thresholds, institutions will need to keep refusal rates below 5% (up from 10%) and course completion rates above 90% or else face sanctions. This was outlined in the UK government’s .

4. 老九品茶鈥檚 study visa approval rates are estimates calculated by the 老九品茶 data science team. The calculation is as follows:

Study Visa Approval Rate = Confirmed Study Visa Approvals 梅 (Confirmed Study Visa Approvals + Reported Study Visa Rejections)

Confirmed Study Visa Approval: Applicant has submitted documentary evidence of study visa approval to 老九品茶 and/or has had their enrolment confirmed by the destination institution.

Reported Study Visa Rejection: (a) Applicant has indicated to 老九品茶 that they have been refused a study visa and/or have requested a refund for their tuition deposit due to study visa refusal, and (b) applicant鈥檚 enrolment has not been confirmed by the destination institution.

Note: 老九品茶 applicants do not receive any special treatment from governing officials.

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Over the 2024/25 academic year,¹ interest in Irish higher education remained strong. In fact, international student enrolment reached a record high of 44,500, surpassing the previous year鈥檚 total of 40,000.听

Below, we’re taking a closer look at recently released student data from Ireland’s Higher Education Authority (HEA),² and diving into some of the trends shaping this sustained demand. We’ll discuss which programmes were attractive to international students, which student populations were among the fastest-growing in Ireland, overall international enrolment levels, and more.

Ireland’s International Student Population Continues to Grow

For the fourth academic year in a row, the number of international enrolments in Irish higher education institutions grew. In fact, total enrolments reached a new record in 2024/25:

Total international enrolments were up by 10% year-over-year in 2024/25. While this was a slower pace than in the previous academic years, it continued the trend of steady growth across the sector.听

It’s also encouraging that international undergraduate and postgraduate enrolments climbed. Undergraduate enrolments increased by 9% year-over-year while postgraduate enrolments climbed by 11%. In fact, the postgraduate sector is rapidly closing the gap between the two cohorts, with the study level trending toward exceeding undergraduate enrolments by the next academic cycle.听

老九品茶’s Fall 2025 Student Pulse Survey found that, of 老九品茶’s six study destinations, Ireland had the lowest rate of negative perception among international students. Respondents largely saw Ireland as an open, safe, and welcoming destination.听

Ireland’s Top International Student Populations in 2024/25

For the second year in a row, Indian students were the largest international student population in Ireland. In 2024/25, Indian students represented just over 20% of all international enrolments in Ireland. Enrolments from Indian students grew by 30% year-over-year, which made it a key driver of the sector’s growth:听

American students, who had been the largest student population until 2023/24, remained the second-largest cohort. This was also the fourth year in a row that the American international student population grew, a trend that will likely continue as more American students considered studying abroad in 2025 than in 2024. A recent study found that Ireland tied with Italy as the fourth most popular study abroad destination among American students.³

Enrolments from UK students, on the other hand, dipped by 5% year-over-year. This continues an ongoing trend for UK-based international students, as it鈥檚 the fourth year in a row in which their enrolments have dipped. This likely ties into the UK’s departure from both the European Union in late 2020 and the EU-wide Erasmus Programme, which allowed students from participating countries to study abroad without paying international student fees. As , our team predicts that the UK student population in Ireland will start rising again in that academic year.

Elsewhere, enrolment levels for Chinese students leveled out, remaining essentially the same as in 2023/24. Combined, the four largest international student populations in Ireland composed 51% of the total international student body during this past academic year:

Growth Diversifies Across Ireland’s Higher Education Sector

Several emerging international student populations also grew quickly in 2024/25. In fact, 70% of the 30 largest international student populations in Ireland expanded over the most recent academic year:

The Netherlands was the fastest-growing student population, rising by 41% compared to 2023/24 levels. In 2024/25, 6 of the 10 fastest-growing student populations in Ireland were European, which is understandable when nearly 40% of young Europeans think that the freedom to travel and explore other countries is a key benefit of being part of the EU.⁴听

This mobility is encouraged by programs like , which allows students from participating countries (the 27 EU Member States and 6 non-EU associated countries) to study in another participating country for up to 12 months. Students receive a grant that supports their travel and daily living costs, and are exempt from tuition, lab fees or library charges, though they still must cover insurance and student union fees. Initiatives like this are central to improving access to international study opportunities.

That said, three out of the four fastest-growing international student populations over the last two academic years were from outside of Europe: Brazil, India, and Mexico’s student populations each grew by over 25% in the 2023/24 and 2024/25 academic years. By continuing to attract diverse student populations, institutions and government agencies bolster Ireland’s strength as a study destination.

Top Fields of Study in Ireland in 2024/25

Business, administration, and law programmes reclaimed the top spot from health and welfare-related courses as the most popular field of study among international students in Ireland. Almost 20% of international students pursued a business, administration, or law-related course in 2024/25:

Nearly every field of study saw a higher number of enrolments, which can be explained in part by the higher total number of international students in Ireland. That said, some fields grew faster than others. Arts, business, natural sciences, and ICT courses saw double-digit enrolment growth year-over-year. Meanwhile, growth slowed in the health and engineering fields of study.

An exception to this pattern was education programme enrolment, which dropped by 40% year-over-year. It was the only field of study that didn’t grow, and aligns with findings in other parts of the world that demand for education programmes is declining.⁵ Across many of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, while teachers’ annual salary numbers increased between 2015 and 2023, it wasn’t enough to keep up with inflation. As such, many teachers’ purchasing power was lower in 2023 than it was in 2015. Over that timeframe, in Ireland, experienced lower secondary teachers’ purchasing power . This economic shift may contribute to international students seeing teaching as a less attractive career choice.听

For many international students, the financial investment required to live and study abroad is significant. This may have influenced their interest in business, health, and STEM fields, as, especially for STEM graduates, starting salaries can be higher.⁶ Meanwhile, new grads pursuing health care roles are in steady demand, and their training can prepare them for careers across the EU.

Building a Sustainable Future for International Students in Ireland听

As student populations grow, institutions must sustain programs and tools that encourage holistic student success. Per HEA data, in the most recent academic year, 20% out of all students (international and domestic) in Ireland reported that they live with a disability. Learning difficulties like dyslexia or ADHD were reported by 50% of those students, while 38% reported a psychological or emotional condition.听

Life with a disability affects international students in a variety of ways: not least, they experience the additional stressors of living and studying in an unfamiliar country, and may also be adjusting to a learning environment in their non-primary language. They might be less familiar with the student well-being or academic services offered by a HEI, or less willing to seek support when they need it.⁷ For example, an US-based survey of nearly 45,000 college students (domestic and international) found that international students were less likely to report depression-anxiety or anxiety diagnoses despite reporting higher rates of depressive symptoms (42.4%) than their domestic peers (40.2%).⁸听

Compounding this challenge is that as recently as 2023, a survey conducted by the European Union found Ireland was the hardest place in the EU to access mental health services. Respondents cited factors like cost, treatment and diagnosis delays, long waiting lists, and lack of awareness of different services.⁹

Open conversations about the different tools available on-campus and online helps to destigmatize accessing these services. And across campus, using human-forward and tech initiatives can help international students thrive. For example, student support volunteers who speak the languages of your institution’s largest international student populations are crucial connection points. They can help new students build a new social community, and overcome moments of culture shock.听

Meanwhile, technology that gauges student engagement via course logins or missed assignments flags to instructors when a student might be struggling. This enables instructors and student support teams to offer proactive, instead of reactive, care. Instructors can also use tools like to more easily adapt their courses to fit different learning styles, in turn boosting learner engagement and overall student success.

It’s encouraging to see Ireland’s international education sector continue to grow for its fourth straight academic year. Ireland’s excellent education system, welcoming approach to international students, and position as a tech hub within the EU make it an attractive choice for many international students. The 老九品茶 team is proud to support our Irish higher education institution partners in connecting with them.听

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. Unless noted otherwise, dates refer to Ireland’s academic year, which runs from September to May.

2. All data in this article is courtesy of the (HEA). Data methodology changes occurred between the 2023/24 and 2024/25 HEA datasets. So, the data in this article is not directly comparable to our analysis of Ireland鈥檚 international education sector in Dec. 2024. Note that HEA rounds values to the nearest five students.

3. The PIE. “.” July 1, 2025.

4. European Union, “.” February 2025.

5. EducationWeek. “.” October 27, 2025.

6. USA Today. “.” March 9, 2023.

7. Frontiers in Psychiatry. “.” April 15, 2025.

8. National Library of Medicine. “.” January 31, 2021.

9. PLOS One. “.” August 21, 2025.

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In some encouraging news about 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 international education sector, from January to August 2025,¹ 57% of applicants at the bachelor鈥檚 level² were approved for a new Canadian student visa.³ This was 16 percentage points higher than in full-year 2024, and a much higher approval rate than those for other postsecondary levels such as all college programs and postgraduate studies.

Join us as we dive into the resiliency of undergraduate degree approval rates during the first eight months of 2025. How did approval rates for bachelor鈥檚 degrees compare to college and postgraduate programs? Which provinces saw the highest approval rate jumps this year? And how did the top student populations evolve?

University Bachelor鈥檚 Programs Seeing Highest Canadian Postsecondary Approval Rates in 2025

University-level bachelor鈥檚 programs were the only study level to see year-over-year approval rate growth in early 2025, climbing 16 percentage points above full-year 2024:

While postgraduate study permit approval rates dipped slightly this year, the overall resilience of the university sector has been a standout story through the first half of 2025. After a challenging 2024, the 57% approval rate for new university-level bachelor鈥檚 programs marks a return to a level last seen in 2022.

It鈥檚 worth noting that study permit applications for undergraduate level studies have historically had higher approval rates during the January through August period compared to the September through December period. This means that the full-year 2025 approval rates may still dip by a few percentage points. Nevertheless, even with a modest seasonal correction this part of the sector will likely finish well ahead of where it was in 2024, reinforcing the university route as a dependable choice for students planning their future in Canada.

Undergraduate Approval Rates Increased in Nearly Every Province in 2025

Another exciting development about the upswing of new undergraduate approval rates is that it was country-wide. Nine of 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 ten provinces saw an increase in bachelor鈥檚 approval rates compared to 2024:

The most encouraging takeaway for international student advisors is that we鈥檙e not seeing one or two of 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 provinces doing the bulk of the heavy lifting. While British Columbia and Ontario saw the highest approval rates for new undergraduate applicants during the first eight months of 2025, it was Quebec and Alberta who experienced the highest approval rate increase compared to full-year 2024. Their approval rates went up 22 and 13 percentage points respectively.

The data points to a healthy revitalization of regional study options as well. Atlantic Canada, for instance, saw consistent gains across Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. This broad improvement signals that the bachelor鈥檚 degree is performing well across different provincial regulatory environments, allowing partners to diversify their student placements with renewed confidence.

Bachelor鈥檚 Approval Rates Rebounding Across Key Student Populations

Positive momentum at the undergraduate level is also occurring across most of 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 student populations rather than among just a few of the largest ones:

Of the 20 leading student populations for bachelor鈥檚 applicants, 13 saw approval rates improve in the first eight months of 2025 compared to full-year 2024. Established student populations from France, the US, and the UK continue to demonstrate exceptional reliability, with study permit approval rates over 95%.

Perhaps even more encouraging is the upward trajectory seen among key emerging student populations. Student populations from Indonesia, Japan, and Hong Kong remained dependable, with approval rates above 90% and with steady upward trends. Additionally, many that have historically faced more challenging approval environments recorded meaningful growth. The approval rate for Nigerian students improved by 10 percentage points over full-year 2024, while approval rates for Pakistan and Egypt also climbed substantially.

These results suggest that bachelor鈥檚 programs continue to attract genuine students from around the world. As such, international student advisors should approach 2026 with a proactive mindset, ready to connect students with emerging opportunities.

How 老九品茶 Helps International Student Advisors Enhance Student Approval Rates

While the positive developments at the university undergraduate level are exciting to see, it鈥檚 worth taking a step back and looking at the picture as a whole, since not all students want to pursue a bachelor鈥檚 degree. Postgraduate programs are on pace to see approval rates under 50% for the second consecutive year, while college programs are seeing only one in four applicants approved. In total, the overall approval rate for all new postsecondary applicants in Canada was 36% through the first eight months of 2025.

International students who applied through 老九品茶, on the other hand, saw a 63% approval rate for the 2025 intake.⁴ And this stronger performance is country-wide:

Across Canada, 老九品茶 applicants consistently outperformed the provincial averages, with particularly strong advantages in the Prairie and Atlantic provinces. This data shows that expert guidance and quality assurance remain among the most effective tools for navigating today’s approval landscape.

Indeed, earlier this year we explored the top reasons for Canadian study permit refusals in 2024, which found that thousands of potential students were refused due to missing documentation. Our platform proactively mitigates these risks by validating key documents like passports and English test results prior to submission. We also ensure that every application includes a unique statement of purpose and that all supporting documentation is clear and legible.

Complementing these quality controls is our AI-powered matching technology. These tools help to steer prospective students toward programs tailored to their academic journey. Likewise, by leveraging historical data through 老九品茶鈥檚 Canadian Visa Calculator, our platform points partners toward institutions and programs that align best with their students鈥� profiles. This ensures that every study permit application is built on a strong academic foundation, significantly improving the chances of a positive outcome.

A Renewed Pathway for Student Success for 2026

The data from the first eight months of 2025 shows that the Canadian university undergraduate sector has weathered recent shifts and emerged as a pillar of stability. For international student advisors, this resurgence offers a strategic opportunity to rebuild students’ confidence and provide them with the security they are looking for.

We encourage partners to use these findings to guide their recruitment strategies for the upcoming year. By leveraging 老九品茶鈥檚 data-backed insights and quality assurance tools, partners can navigate this evolving landscape with confidence, ensuring their students have the best possible chance of realizing their Canadian education goals.

Interested in increasing your student reach with 老九品茶? to become part of our global network, or connect with your regional representative to learn more about taking student recruitment to the next level.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. All data is sourced from unless otherwise noted. Most recent government data cited in this article spans January to August 2025. All data in this article is for new study permits only.

2. All references to bachelor鈥檚 programs throughout this article refer to university-level bachelor鈥檚 programs only.

3. The terms student visa and study permit are generally used interchangeably for Canadian international students. Rather than student visas, Canada provides accepted international students with study permits, which allow those students to enrol in classes at Canadian institutions. When a student is accepted for a study permit, they are also usually provided with a visitor visa, which allows that student to enter Canada for their studies. In this article, we鈥檒l use the terms interchangeably.

4. 老九品茶鈥檚 study permit approval rates are estimates calculated by the 老九品茶 Data Science team. The calculation is as follows:

Study Permit Approval Rate = Confirmed Study Permit Approvals 梅 (Confirmed Study Permit Approvals + Reported Study Permit Rejections)

Confirmed Study Permit Approval: Applicant has submitted documentary evidence of study permit approval to 老九品茶 and/or has had their enrolment confirmed by the destination institution.

Reported Study Permit Rejection: (a) Applicant has indicated to 老九品茶 that they have been refused a study permit and/or have requested a refund for their tuition deposit due to study permit refusal, and (b) applicant鈥檚 enrolment has not been confirmed by the destination institution.

Note: 老九品茶 applicants do not receive any special treatment from IRCC.

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The international education sector in Canada is navigating its most significant period of policy-driven change. As we discussed earlier this year, the impacts of 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 caps on student demand have resulted in the majority of recent study permit issuances¹ being granted to students already residing in Canada, fundamentally altering the enrolment mix.

Recent study permit data confirms this historic shift in student volume,² marking a substantial decline in the intake of new international students and demanding strategic recalibration from post-secondary institutions nationwide. This data underscores a stark reality: 老九品茶 projects the federal government is on track to approve only 80,000 new student visas for international post-secondary students in full-year 2025.³ This projected volume represents the lowest intake of new international students witnessed in the past decade, signaling an unprecedented shift in Canada’s global student recruitment model.

Today, we鈥檙e breaking down the full impact of these shifts and taking a closer look at which post-secondary study levels have experienced the greatest impact. We鈥檒l also provide updated projections for 2025, compare recent study permit trends to those earlier in the year, and detail our outlook for 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 international education sector in 2026.

Post-Secondary Study Permits On Track for Decade Low

When 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 study permit caps were implemented in 2024, the government鈥檚 stated intention was to reduce 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 intake of international students by 35%.⁴ A further 10% reduction was implemented in 2025, before caps were set to .

However, the actual impact on student demand and student visa volumes has far surpassed these initial intentions. Rather than dropping by 35% in 2024, study permit approvals for new post-secondary students fell by 52%, dropping below 2018 levels. And, based on new IRCC data for the first eight months of 2025, approvals are set to decline by over 50% again this year:

We project that only 80,000 new study permits will be approved for international post-secondary students in 2025, representing a 62% decline from 2024. This decrease is caused not only by weakening student demand towards Canada, but also by a significant decline in study permit approval rates. Initial cap calculations were based on a 60% study permit approval rate, yet post-secondary approval rates reached only 37% through the first eight months of 2025.⁵

Both low application volumes and low approval rates have naturally led to a decline in the number of new study permits issued. Given that issuance is the final stage of the student visa process鈥攄enoting when a student arrives at a Canadian port of entry to begin their studies鈥攍ow issued visa volumes directly represent fewer international students arriving in Canada to begin their studies, and thus steep declines in enrolment. Although government targets anticipated a ~42% decrease in new international post-secondary students from 2023 to 2025, actual student inflows are projected to drop by 81%. If this projection is realized over the next two months, Canada will have welcomed fewer international post-secondary students in 2025 than in any non-pandemic year over the last decade.

Onshore Extensions Claim 鈪� of All Approvals and Issuances

Despite a sharp decline in new international student enrolment, overall international student populations on Canadian campuses are set to remain comparatively stable. Indeed, while new student inflows have slowed, proportionally more international students are staying in Canada, either extending their study period or enrolling in additional study programs.

This means that international students already in Canada will account for nearly two thirds of all study permit issuances in 2025:

This substantial increase in the proportion of issuances for study permit extensions is nearly inverse to other non-pandemic years. For example, in 2022, only 30% of study permits were issued to onshore students. A higher percentage of issuances to new students represents growth and stability for Canadian institutions, with graduating students replaced by new, incoming international students on campus.

However, the current trend favouring study permit extensions presents a clear risk: international student populations on Canadian campuses are set to decline substantially in the coming years. Students who receive a study permit extension are more likely to be closer to graduation, either because they extended their permit to finish their studies or because they are enrolling in post-graduation programs that tend to have shorter durations. As such, the population of international students on study permit extensions cannot remain stable without an adequate flow of new students.

As new student inflows weaken, there is an increased risk that total international student populations may decline by as much as 50% in 2026. This could create challenging financial conditions for many Canadian institutions鈥攂eyond the impacts noted by many institutions in 2025鈥攁nd fundamentally weaken the diversity of 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 student population.

Canadian Colleges Especially Impacted by Onshore Shift

Over the past year, some institutions have increased their onshore recruitment efforts in response to this changing landscape, aiming to encourage graduates to pursue further qualifications to enhance their career prospects and opportunities. Such alternative strategies are critical for the stability of many Canadian institutions, especially Canadian colleges:

Through the first eight months of 2025, Canadian universities have seen a near 50/50 split among new international students and onshore students receiving study permit issuances. However, Canadian colleges have seen a much stronger skew towards onshore, with 77% of all issued study permits going towards extensions. If this trend continues for the full year, new study permits issued for all Canadian college programs are unlikely to reach 30,000.

This represents a fundamental rebalancing of student inflows to Canadian institutions. Colleges are on pace to account for about 30% of all new Canadian study permits issued in 2025, down from 57% just two years ago. Given that recent PGWP changes have a significantly greater impact on college graduates than university grads, and given that many in-demand jobs are aligned with college level programs,⁶ it鈥檚 likely that the compound effect of Canadian government policy changes will create significant challenges in addressing labour shortages in the coming years.

Summer Study Permit Data Shows Soft Recovery

It鈥檚 worth noting that there are some signs of soft recovery for 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 beleaguered international education sector. Study permit data for the summer of 2025 shows a marked increase in study permit approval rates. While average approval rates did not surpass 30% until May of this year, approval rates in August grew to over 55%:

This increase in approval rates came in the nick of time, as the summer months are typically Canada’s busiest application period. Combining a rising approval rate during this busy season led to a notable increase in study permit approvals during the Jun鈥揂ug months. Over 35,000 new study permits were approved for international post-secondary students over these three months, compared to just over 23,000 in the five months prior. This increase was especially pronounced for Canadian universities, where August alone accounted for over one-third of the year-to-date total in new study permit approvals. For Canadian universities, this may be a sign that study permit approval rates are finally returning to IRCC target rates, making potential student flows more predictable heading into 2026.

However, for Canadian colleges, the outlook for full-year 2025 is more challenging. The summer months did show some improvement in study permit approvals, but average approval rates remained around 25%. With three-quarters of international applicants denied a study permit for Canadian college programs, PAL allocations are a major concern. Low approval rates may lead some colleges to centralize their recruitment efforts towards high conversion countries, significantly reducing on-campus diversity and further undermining 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 global image as welcoming to all students. Instead, we encourage Canadian colleges to work with collaborative partners like 老九品茶 to increase student conversion from all source countries through rigorous application screening, smart program matching, and recruitment network training.

Strategic Recalibration for a Path Forward

颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 international education sector has reached a pivotal juncture, with data from the first eight months of 2025 showing how critical it is for post-secondary institutions to recalibrate their recruitment efforts. Our projected decade-low intake of only 80,000 new international post-secondary students for the full year, coupled with unchanged 2026 student caps, confirms that 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 post-secondary sector is unlikely to achieve stability or sustainability in the coming years.

The key takeaway for institutions is the looming demographic cliff. The current reliance on onshore study permit extensions means the international student population faces a potential steep decline in 2026 and 2027, as current students graduate without sufficient new offshore students to replace them. Institutions need to actively engage on international enrolment to try to mitigate some of these declines, and they should also leverage technology solutions that reduce resource needs while providing a high-impact experience to students and recruitment teams.

This challenge is most acute for Canadian colleges. Colleges must focus resources on partners that ensure rigorous applicant screening and strong study-plan alignment to improve approval rates. Additionally, institutions need to ensure they provide continued support to their current international student populations, as leveraging word-of-mouth, online testimonials, and alumni networks will likely be necessary to attain full PAL allocation usage next year.

For all institutions, sustainability is now contingent upon a dual strategy: proactive risk mitigation and selective growth. The path forward requires moving beyond reactive management to structural adaptation. By embracing data-driven decision-making and aggressively improving applicant quality across the recruitment network, Canadian institutions can navigate this policy-constrained environment and secure a more stable, albeit smaller, international education sector.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. Study permit data is tracked based on three discrete stages: study permit submission, study permit processing, and study permit issuance. Study permit processing (approval/refusal) denotes when a final decision is made by IRCC (or CBSA) whether to accept or reject the student鈥檚 study permit application (or the student opts to withdraw their application). Study permit issuance denotes when a student arrives at a Canadian port of entry and receives their approved study permit application.

2. All data is sourced from unless otherwise noted. Most recent government data cited in this article spans January to August 2025. All figures associated with full-year 2025 are 老九品茶 projections based on Jan鈥揂ug 2025 figures and full-year trends from previous calendar years. Projections may be subject to change based on changing conditions and source data.

3. The terms student visa and study permit are generally used interchangeably for Canadian international students. Rather than student visas, Canada provides accepted international students with study permits, which allow those students to enrol in classes at Canadian institutions. When a student is accepted for a study permit, they are also usually provided with a visitor visa, which allows that student to enter Canada for their studies. In this article, we鈥檒l use the terms interchangeably.

4. 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 2025 study permit caps are noted as being applicable to , rather than study permit approval figures as was used in .

5. Initial cap calculations were 鈥攙ia provincial top-ups and reallocations鈥攕hifting the projected approval rate to 53% for 2024.

6. Such as nursing, hospitality, trades, early childhood education, and supply chain management.

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The international education landscape has experienced numerous shifts over the past two years. Major policy updates and fresh economic realities are redrawing the worldwide map of student mobility. While studying abroad remains as popular as ever, these students are adopting a more strategic approach. Today鈥檚 international students exert greater agency, actively weighing costs and post-study opportunities, while also considering options beyond the most popular destinations. This generation is making informed choices that are already charting new pathways across the global learning landscape.

To understand how these students’ goals are changing amid an evolving international education sector, the team at 老九品茶 ran our seventh Student Pulse Survey in September 2025, refreshing our survey questions in collaboration with the team at the Canadian Bureau for International Education (CBIE).¹ Nearly 300 future international students shared their thoughts, detailing everything from which destinations they had in mind to which factors are most influential when choosing where to study.

Below, we’ll explore current student and advisor perceptions of top study destinations, how different program areas are capturing student interest, popular post-study plans, and more.

Canada Retains its Lead as a Popular Study Destination

Government policies in major destinations have impacted student mobility flows, and caused substantial shifts in student visa trends. Despite the impact of student caps and PGWP changes, student interest levels in Canada remained high, which boosted its lead on the US to keep the top spot. In fact, 95% of respondents were interested in Canada as a study destination, to some extent:

The most notable change in student destination preferences is that strong interest in the US declined compared to the previous three surveys. When compared to the Spring 2025 Student Pulse Survey, interest in studying in the US dropped by 9 percentage points among respondents who chose “extremely interested,” and by 1 percentage point among students who chose “very interested.” Looking back to our Fall 2024 survey, these outlooks dropped by 10 percentage points and 4 percentage points year-over-year, respectively. Given that becoming an international student can be a stressful, complex process, factors like added scrutiny on US student visa applications³ and the government’s revocation of thousands of student visas earlier this year⁴ may be shifting students’ outlook.

Comparing Student and Advisor Perceptions of Top Study Destinations’ Safety and Welcome of International Students

As government rhetoric and policies related to immigration shift, international students are paying attention. To gauge how students think they’d be treated while abroad, we asked them to rank six popular destinations on how open, safe, and welcoming they are. In our Fall 2025 Recruitment Partner Pulse Survey, we also asked international student advisors for their perspective on this topic.

Generally, students’ outlooks are more cautious than their advisors’:

In most cases, the majority of students agreed all six destinations were open, safe, and welcoming. However, only 43% of students either strongly agreed or agreed that this was true of the US, the lowest positive sentiment among the six destination options.⁵

Across the board, students were more likely to have more polarized negative feelings: the proportion of students who strongly disagreed a place was welcoming was always greater than those who only disagreed. Only a small percentage of student advisors strongly disagreed that any of the six destinations were welcoming鈥攔anging from 0.8% to 5.7%鈥攚hile the proportion of students who strongly disagreed was higher, from 9% to 18%.

By contrast, students were much more likely to agree a destination was welcoming, rather than strongly agreeing. However, high levels of strong agreement were more common among student advisors. For example, where 47% of advisors strongly agreed the UK was an open, safe, and welcoming destination, only 22% of students strongly agreed. This disparity could have many causes, from students taking in more polarized content through social media and news feeds, to personal connections with current students, to having a more cautious outlook as they’re the ones who will actually be living abroad.

Everyone involved in supporting international students, from student advisors to institutional staff and family members, should recognize the importance of checking in with students to understand any concerns they have about studying abroad. Many concerns will be valid, but it’s vital to guide students away from misinformation and provide context, as oversimplification of complex issues in short form content can also have a significant effect on students’ perspectives. Sometimes, even taking time to answer extra questions or offer a patient response can make a difference, and help future students feel more welcome. For institutions, this means ensuring there is a wealth of reliable, factual, and easy-to-understand information available to international students about your campuses, your program offerings, post-study work opportunities, and more.

Through understanding their perspective, providing fact-checked information, and advocating for international education in our spheres of influence, we can all ensure tomorrow’s leaders and innovators are well-prepared for the next step in their study journeys.

Students Increasingly Considering African and Asian Study Destinations

In a time of increased student agency, prospective students have more destination options than ever before. While most of our survey respondents were focused on institutions in Australia, Canada, Ireland, Germany, the UK, and the US, 38% were considering studies in other destinations. This proportion is up 3 percentage points compared to our Spring 2025 survey.

When respondents were asked about other destinations students they were considering, we found that more students are considering a wider range of options:⁶

Nigeria was the most popular alternative study destination, cited by 12% of survey participants. Nigerian students were also the largest survey demographic (32% of participants), so it’s possible many of these students are considering domestic and international options. However, this interest may also include other student populations who, seeing the Nigerian government’s push to develop their post-secondary sector, are considering studies closer to home.

France and New Zealand also ranked highly among alternative destinations, securing interest from 10% and 9% of students respectively, rounding out the top three destinations. Meanwhile, Finland (8%) slipped to fourth place鈥攄own from third in our Spring 2025 Student Pulse survey鈥攁nd the Netherlands and Sweden tied for fifth. The Asian destination most often cited by participants was Japan, which captured 6% of responses and tied with Norway in sixth place. Ghana was the second-most popular African destination, coming seventh with Switzerland as each captured 5% of responses.

Alongside Nigeria, Ghana’s growing international student population is shaping student flows in Africa and worldwide.

Student Interest in Business Programs Remains Strong

When asked which fields future students planned to pursue, business programs like commerce, marketing, and management remained the most popular. 40% of respondents were interested in business programs,⁷ followed by math, computer science, and IT programs (24%), then health and medical programs (22%):

While student interest levels in these program areas were fairly consistent with past results there was one significant outlier. Although engineering still attracted the fourth-highest level of student interest, the proportion of students interested in engineering (16%) was at its lowest level since we added this question to the survey in spring 2023. This shift could be driven by fewer or more limited post-study work policies that favour STEM fields in major destinations,⁸ or due to affordability concerns associated with STEM programs. We don鈥檛 anticipate that this trend will persist in 2026 but our team will monitor future surveys.

Future Students Aim for Nursing, Research, and Business Careers

When we asked students about their career plans after graduation, we saw a wide variety of goals. In this edition of the Student Pulse Survey, nursing appeared more than any other career choice. This is good news for healthcare systems worldwide, as new grads can fill staffing gaps while bringing technological savvy and innovative ideas to the organizations they work with.

Let’s take a look at students’ dream careers:

While some are reliably popular鈥攍ike business management, software engineering, and research, which along with “business” as a general field made up the five most popular career choices鈥攐ur survey results also highlight how interest is shifting in other fields. Given the current enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI), it makes sense that students plan to pursue careers in fields like IT, machine learning, and cybersecurity. Data scientists and analysts also appeared among the top 10 career choices.

Elsewhere, an uptick in interest around aviation and aerospace stood out in these fall results. From earning their pilot’s license to working with NASA, flight and space-related careers appeared in 4% of responses, versus 0.5% of responses in Spring 2025. This increased interest may be linked to growing demand for those trained in aviation. As global air fleets expand, especially in the Asia Pacific region, and current pilots and crew retire, one sector forecast predicts nearly 1.5 million new civil aviation employees will be needed by 2034.⁹ Students interested in aviation programs now could be great candidates to fill those roles after they graduate.

Over One-Third of Students Plan to Gain International Work Experience

Although post-study plans can change, it speaks to international students’ planning skills that only 6% of respondents weren’t sure where they wanted to be after graduation:

While 27% of students plan to return home immediately, 43% hope to work in their study country temporarily, leveraging programs like Canada’s Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP), the Graduate visa in the UK, or OPT (Optional Practical Training) in the US to build their skills and network. A further 22% hope to pursue permanent residency after graduation, while only 1% plan to move to a third destination.

Whether they plan to build a career locally or internationally, it matters to students how well institutions prepare new grads to excel. In fact, over 60% of respondents noted high graduate employment rates were a key factor when considering which program to apply to, second only to affordable tuition rates.¹⁰

Build Your International Student Strategy with 老九品茶

The Student Pulse Survey gives us a helpful look into future students’ goals, motivations, and challenges related to becoming an international student. Sending out a hearty thank you to the hundreds of students who took the time to share their thoughts!

If you’re looking for more in-depth sector analysis, stay tuned for 老九品茶’s 2026 Trends Report this November. Every year, we take a comprehensive look at how the sector is evolving鈥攁nd how your team can stay ahead of the curve.

If you’re part of an institution interested in honing your international recruitment strategy, 老九品茶’s sector insights, real-time dashboards, and global network of partners can help you reach established and emerging student audiences, driving diversity and innovation on your campus. Start a conversation with our Commercial Partnerships team today.

Taryn Graham leverages over 15 years of communications expertise from the public and private sectors in her work with 老九品茶’s Strategic Content and Thought Leadership team, spanning 老九品茶 Insights and the main blog. She also manages the biannual Student and Recruitment Partner Pulse Surveys.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. The Fall 2025 老九品茶 Student Pulse Survey ran from September 2鈥�15, 2025, and received 291 responses from individuals in 61 student markets.

2. Australia, Canada, Germany, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

3. Makiya Seminera and Christopher L. Keller, ABC News. “.” Oct. 8, 2025.

4. Jeffrey R. Young, The Hechinger Report. “.” May 1, 2025.

5. “Disagreed” here includes students who chose “disagree” (11.3% of respondents) and “strongly disagree” (18.1%).

6. Students could share one or more destinations in their response.

7. Survey participants could choose more than one field of study.

8. Including the end of Australia鈥檚 for fields with verified skill shortages, Canadian , and recent discussions about .

9. CAE, “.” Accessed Oct. 16, 2025.

10. When answering this question, students could select up to 5 factors from a list of 10.

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Now more than ever, affordability has become one of the top concerns for international students hoping to pursue their study dreams abroad. Inflation and economic uncertainty have made nearly every aspect of day-to-day life more expensive, shifting student flows and impacting overall student mobility. That鈥檚 because for international students, tighter economic conditions impact not only costs at home, but also planned expenses such as rent, groceries, utilities, and more at their destination.

Today, we are taking a closer look at the two most significant costs for international students studying in Canada: tuition and rent. We鈥檒l look at average undergraduate and graduate tuition costs in every Canadian province, as well as dive into rental costs in major cities coast to coast. We鈥檒l also discuss what Canadian institutions can do to help international students address affordability concerns.

How Much Does Canadian Tuition Cost for International Students in 2025/26?

For most prospective international students, the cost of a study abroad program is likely the largest financial consideration they face. Many students rely on financial support from their parents or family, viewing international education as an investment in their future success and career growth. For international students studying in Canada, tuition fees can account for more than half of their annual expenses.²

On average, a four-year undergraduate program at a Canadian institution beginning in 2025/26 will cost over $177,000 in tuition alone.³ By contrast, a two-year graduate program may cost less than $50,000 in tuition.

The following chart shows how average annual tuition costs for international students in Canada have changed since 2021/22:

In 2025/26, the average tuition for international students studying at the undergraduate level nearly reached $42,000. This was a 4% increase over the previous academic year, although it was the lowest year-over-year increase since 2021/22.⁴

Postgraduate tuition rates also rose by 3% in 2025/26. While this increase was similar to the rate of change for undergraduate tuition, average yearly tuition for postgraduate programs was 42% lower than undergraduate rates. This lower rate largely reflects the difference in course loads between the two study levels, with many graduate students taking fewer courses per semester.⁵

These increases come at a time when tuition costs are becoming more important as a differentiating factor between institutions. Our Fall 2025 Recruitment Partner Pulse survey revealed that 鈥渃ost of studying鈥� remains the top priority for international students considering where to study, yet Canada is perceived as less affordable than European destinations like Germany and Ireland. This means that Canadian institutions need to highlight unique program opportunities, post-study career assistance, on-campus services, and post-graduation employment rates to clearly demonstrate the value of an international education on their campuses to prospective students.

Keep an eye out for an upcoming ApplyInsight article on our Fall 2025 Student Pulse Survey, which will provide fresh insights into prospective student opinions from around the world.

Average Tuition Cost for International Students by Province

Variances in tuition rates are influenced by a number of factors, including program length, delivery method, and type of institution. Yet the most substantial impact on tuition paid over the course of a program often arises from where a student decides to study in Canada.

Taking a closer look at Canadian tuition affordability by province, there are significant variations at both the undergrad and graduate levels:

Ontario remains the most popular provincial destination for international students, accounting for 48% of all study permit holders at the end of 2024. Although this is a five point decline from 2023, Ontario tuition rates still have a substantial impact on national averages. And, this high demand means that Ontario institutions often feature higher tuition rates due to how competitive acceptances are for in-demand programs.

Undergraduate tuition in Ontario in 2025/26 was almost 25% higher than the next most expensive province, British Columbia. Likewise, undergrad tuition for international students in Ontario was more than double that of Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, PEI, and Manitoba. For price-conscious students, studying in these lower-cost provinces can make their Canadian undergraduate journey significantly more affordable.

Based on average 2025/26 tuition rates, a four-year undergraduate program in Newfoundland and Labrador would cost around $75,000. By contrast, the same program in Ontario would cost nearly $200,000.

Differences in postgraduate tuition were less pronounced, although there were some outliers. Although Ontario was the only province to exceed the national average for undergraduate and postgraduate tuition, British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and Ontario all surpassed the national average postgraduate tuition. On the other hand, both Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador featured postgraduate tuition under half the national average, making them the most affordable destinations for international postgraduate students in 2025/26.

Comparing provincial tuition rates for both study levels over the past five years shows that nearly all provinces have had regular average tuition increases year-over-year:

All provinces experienced increased undergraduate tuition for international students in 2025/26. At the postgraduate level, Newfoundland and Labrador鈥檚 average postgraduate tuition remained stable in 2025/26, coming in at less than 25% of average postgraduate tuition in Ontario.

As in prior years, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia showed the greatest parity in undergraduate and postgraduate tuition rates. However, they are trending in opposite directions, with increases in undergraduate tuition in Nova Scotia outpacing rising postgraduation tuition rates. By contrast, New Brunswick is trending toward higher postgraduate tuition rates than undergraduate ones by 2027/28.

How Much Does Rent Cost for International Students in Major Canadian Cities in 2025?

While tuition is typically the most substantial expense for many international students in Canada, housing costs are often close behind. This is one of the main reasons that the Canadian government increased proof of funds requirements in 2024 and 2025, to better reflect the current realities of cost of living in Canada. Despite the influence of the student cap on total international student populations, in many destination markets, especially in major urban centres.

颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 now stands at $22,895, plus first-year tuition and travel costs, to ensure students are financially prepared for success during their study abroad journey.

To understand how much international students will likely pay in rent over the course of their programs, the chart below shows the average rent for one bedroom apartments in select Canadian census metropolitan areas (CMAs) for 2025:⁶

The average rent for a one bedroom apartment in Vancouver remains much higher than other urban centres, while Toronto, Victoria, and Ottawa have become increasingly similarly priced. However, over the past year, rent in Ottawa and Victoria has largely remained stable. Meanwhile, Toronto and Vancouver both experienced a near 5% decrease in one bedroom rent since Q1 2024 due to .

Based on 2025/26 rates, an international student studying in Vancouver can expect to pay over $110,000 in rent over a full four-year undergraduate program.

In fact, rent increases from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025 were most common among smaller Canadian cities. One bedroom rent in Regina increased 10% year-over-year, with similar increases in rent occurring in Saint John. Other cities, including St. John鈥檚, Winnipeg, and Saskatoon experienced more modest 5% increases. By comparison, rent prices for similar accommodations in Calgary, Halifax, and Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge saw 5% declines year-over-year.

As with tuition rates, the Prairies and Atlantic Canada offer higher affordability in terms of average rent. The two most cost-effective CMAs are in Atlantic Canada, namely Saint John and St. John鈥檚. And, excluding the rapidly growing cities of Halifax and Calgary, monthly rents remain below $1,300 for a one bedroom apartment in all Prairie and Atlantic provinces. Quebec CMAs such as Qu茅bec City and Montr茅al also offer sub-$1,350 average rent, though Quebec is the third most expensive province for international student tuition.

In short, while rental costs have stabilized across Canada over the past year, price-sensitive students can find more affordable options by considering less populated CMAs.

What Canadian Institutions Can Do to Help Address Affordability for International Students

Student mobility towards Canada has been on the decline since the introduction of 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 student cap. We recently projected that at least 50% fewer new study permits will be approved in 2025, and study permit approval rates remain at near all-time lows. And, prospective students are increasingly facing Canadian study permit refusals due to lack of financial resources, a necessary check to best support student success in 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 ever-changing economic landscape.

Helping students prepare for and understand the financial realities of studying abroad is critical. Students need to ensure they understand the full financial picture before they embark on their study abroad journey. But tuition must also remain affordable enough that institutions can attract students from a wide variety of backgrounds and lived experiences, in a time when students have more destination choices than ever for their study abroad journey. This diversity is important not only for expanding the experiences of domestic and international students on Canadian campuses, but also for the future growth of the Canadian economy.

While study permit caps have created significant volatility for many institutions鈥� budgets and financial planning, institutions still have a major role to play in helping students understand and overcome financial challenges. Institutions need to ensure that international students have ready access to clear information about scholarships, on-campus work opportunities, and student housing options. And, institutions should ensure they are promoting the value of their programs for students鈥� life-long success, especially as price-conscious students and families consider the potential return on their investment.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. Data courtesy of . All currency in CAD.

2. Based on study permit proof of finance requirements, which require students to demonstrate they have sufficient money to pay for living expenses. As of Sep 1, 2025, the amount required per year for living expenses is $22,895.

3. Based on an estimated 4% increase in tuition costs in 2026/27, 2027/28, and 2028/29.

4. Average undergraduate tuition for international students increased by 6% in each year from 2021/22 to 2024/25.

5. Excluding professional degrees such as those in business (MBA), law, or medicine, which typically have significantly higher annual tuition rates but which account for a smaller portion of overall graduate student populations.

6. According to Statistic 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 鈥溾��, released on June 25, 2025. Off-campus accommodations only.

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颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 international education landscape has been defined by rapid and significant change over the past two years. For students, one of the most impactful shifts has been to their ability to work in Canada after graduation. Policy changes affecting 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) program include the introduction of new language proficiency standards, restrictions on PGWP eligibility for graduates of public-private partnership (PPP) colleges, and new field of study requirements for non-degree programs.

These updates to the PGWP program were part of a broader government strategy to manage student inflows, which also included . Together, these moves signal a more targeted approach to international education. Now, with fewer international students entering the country and a narrower path to PGWP eligibility for many who do, the full effect of these changes is coming into view.

Due to the culmination of these policy changes, Canada is on track to approve 30% fewer post-graduation work permits in 2025 compared to 2024 levels.¹ Today, we鈥檒l break down which student populations, study levels, and fields of study have been most impacted by this PGWP downturn.

Number of PGWP Approvals Could Reach Post-Pandemic Low in 2025

Since the pandemic, January through June (H1) has often accounted for roughly half of PGWP approvals in a given year.² Based on H1 2025 trends, we鈥檙e currently forecasting that Canada will approve about 143,600 PGWPs for the full 2025 calendar year:

Canadian immigration officials approved nearly 75,000 PGWP applications during H1 2025, representing a 29% decline over H1 2024. However, this downward trend accelerated in both May and June, with approvals falling by more than 56% year-over-year in both months. If this accelerated downturn continues throughout the rest of the summer and extends into the early autumn months, PGWP approvals for the full-year could end up below 130,000, the lowest total since the pandemic.

For institutions, a sharp reduction in PGWP approvals undercuts one of 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 most important recruitment advantages. The ability to transition from study to work has long been a defining factor for students choosing Canada over other destinations. As fewer students gain access to post-graduation work opportunities, institutions may find it harder to attract applicants. This could translate into increased competition between institutions for a smaller pool of eligible students.

The broader Canadian economy also stands to feel the effects. PGWP holders have been a vital source of skilled talent in sectors facing chronic shortages, from healthcare to technology. A contraction in approvals means fewer international graduates entering the workforce, potentially destabilizing industries facing skills shortages that have come to depend on new graduates who fuel innovation and growth.

In H1 2025, 96% of PGWP applicants were approved, two percentage points lower than in H1 2024.

Colleges Account for Nearly Two in Every Three PGWP Approvals in 2025

Since the pandemic, at least 58% of PGWP approvals have gone to college students every year. In fact, this proportion has been rising yearly since 2022:

In H1 2025, over 48,000 college students were approved for a PGWP, accounting for 65% of all PGWP approvals during this time. College-level approvals had the slowest year-over-year decline (-25%), and their 97% approval rate was tied for the highest among study levels. However, this apparent resilience is likely temporary. Many of these approvals reflect students who began their studies before the new PGWP restrictions were introduced. As that cohort graduates out of the system, a steeper decline in college-level approvals is likely, especially as the new policies begin to influence student demand in upcoming intakes.

In contrast to the temporary resilience seen at the college level, the downward trend for undergraduate PGWP approvals was more pronounced. In H1 2025, nearly 6,700 PGWPs were approved for undergraduate students. This represents a 37% year-over-year decline, and brought this cohort鈥檚 share of total approvals down to 9%. This fall in volume was coupled with a lower success rate, with the approval rate for undergraduates dropping six percentage points to 89%, the lowest of any study level.

This poses a unique challenge for Canadian universities. In an environment where shorter, more vocational college programs are viewed as a faster and more certain return on investment, universities must more clearly articulate the long-term career advantages of a bachelor’s degree. Embedding practical work experiences, such as co-op programs and internships, could be crucial for demonstrating clear career pathways and ensuring undergraduate degrees remain an attractive and viable option for prospective international students.

Nearly 12,000 master鈥檚 students were approved for a PGWP in H1 2025, 31% lower than in H1 2024.

Business Students See Larger Proportion of PGWP Approvals in 2025

The overall downturn in PGWP approvals hasn鈥檛 affected all fields of study equally. Instead, it has accelerated a significant shift in market share across disciplines:

Business and management programs have emerged as the primary beneficiary of the PGWP distribution shift. In H1 2025, graduates from these programs accounted for 44% of all PGWP approvals, up five percentage points year-over-year. However, the nearly 33,000 PGWP approvals in this field still represented a 21% decline over H1 2024. This means the field鈥檚 expanded proportion of PGWP approvals is a direct result of steeper declines across other disciplines.

Nowhere are those steeper declines more evident than in key STEM and health fields. PGWP approvals for engineering graduates fell by 53% year-over-year, bringing the field鈥檚 share down to just 6%, down four percentage points over H1 2021. Computing and IT and health and general sciences also faced significant declines, with approvals for both down 31% year-over-year.

These shifts carry important implications for 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 talent pipeline. The steep drop in PGWP approvals among graduates in engineering, computing, and health fields means fewer internationally educated workers entering sectors already facing persistent labour shortages. While business and management programs now make up a larger share of approvals, the reduced flow of graduates into STEM and health-related roles could exacerbate existing skills gaps and challenge workforce planning in critical industries.

With many business programs (particularly at the college level) no longer PGWP eligible, we expect STEM fields of study will account for a larger share of PGWP approvals over the next couple of years.

PGWP Approvals, Approval Rate Down For Majority of Student Populations

Of the 20 largest international student populations by PGWP application volume, 17 saw a decline in PGWP approvals in H1 2025:

Despite the overall downturn, Indian students continued to dominate PGWP approvals, accounting for 59% of all permits issued in both H1 2024 and H1 2025. With such a large share, India plays a central role in shaping the broader PGWP trends. For example, the 29% drop in approval volume for Indian students closely aligned with the overall year-over-year decline across all applicants.

By contrast, most other large source markets recorded similar or steeper declines in both approval volume and grant rates. Chinese students, for example, saw a 30% decline in approvals and a five-point decrease in their PGWP approval rate. Filipino and Iranian students also saw significant drops in volume鈥攄own 41% and 44%, respectively鈥攄espite maintaining high success rates.

Bucking this widespread trend, three student populations posted positive growth in PGWP approvals. Students from Nepal were the standout, with approvals jumping 25% year-over-year while maintaining a stellar 99% grant rate. Nigerian and Ghanaian students also saw higher approval totals, up 4% and 8% respectively, despite lower approval rates.

These student population trends paint a picture of an evolving global landscape. While India remains a steadfast anchor of Canada’s PGWP system, the simultaneous growth from markets like Nepal, Nigeria, and Ghana is a clear indicator of where future opportunities in student mobility lie. Institutions that continue to strengthen their presence in India while also expanding outreach and support in high-potential markets will be better positioned to respond to shifting global demand.

What Comes Next for PGWP?

The PGWP contraction in H1 2025 marks a significant turning point in 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 post-study sector. For years, the program served as a key bridge between international education and successful careers in Canada, reinforcing 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 appeal in a competitive global market. But as eligibility narrows and fewer students gain access to post-graduation work opportunities, institutions and students alike are adjusting to a new reality.

This transition is already reshaping application trends, student decision-making, and institutional recruitment strategies. Fields of study and source markets that were once highly active may see further declines in future cohorts as recent policy changes ripple through the system.

In this evolving environment, institutional resilience will depend on strategic alignment, such as evaluating how program portfolios align with both student demand and 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 labour market needs. Similarly, understanding the dynamics between established and emerging student populations will be essential for building a diverse and sustainable recruitment corridor for the years ahead. Ultimately, the institutions that thrive will be those that best help their students navigate this new complexity with clarity and purpose.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. All data courtesy of .

2. Calendar year 2022 was an outlier to this trend, where H1 accounted for only 34% of PGWP approvals for the full year. This was likely partially due to COVID-19 delaying students鈥� travel abroad plans until late 2020; fewer students beginning programs during the half of 2020 would mean there were fewer eligible students to apply for a PGWP two years later.

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