Last year, overall international student numbers climbed, highlighting these students’ determination for a world-class education even amid rising costs and often less hospitable policy environments. In 2026, student pathways continue to be meaningfully shaped by government updates, affordability concerns, and broader social movements. Our 2026 Trends Report highlighted a number of shifts informing the sector. Below, we’re leveraging the latest information available to build off of this report and give you the insights you need to effectively support student success this year.

Here are some of our top international education sector predictions for 2026.

1. International Education Will Remain in the Spotlight

We expect immigration to remain a top-of-mind issue in many Anglophone destinations in 2026, and for it to continue to affect international education policies in these countries.

International enrolments are projected to reach 8.5 million worldwide by 2030.¹ Preparing for these outbound students is a growing priority for institutions and governments in many destinations, whether in the form of building adequate student housing, revising course options to align with student demand and job market needs, or providing support services on campus.

Institutions across the sector are hopeful that the increased level of public attention on post-secondary education will translate to increased funding or more sustainable funding models. In many study destinations, colleges and universities are collectively lobbying for major increases in operating funding after years of frozen tuition and constrained public funding led to budget cuts, layoffs, and program reductions.² This isn’t unique to any single geography; many institutions are weathering increased student demand with less funding, or are restricted by investment tied to specific initiatives.

2. Evolving US Policy Environment Shifts Student Inflows

Despite a mid-year pause in visa processing and highly publicized visa revocations in 2025, many international students’ resolve to study in the US remains. However, as these news stories were shared, some students’ outlook on the US shifted: in 老九品茶’s Fall 2025 Pulse Surveys, 17% of students and 18% of international student advisors strongly agreed the US was an open, safe, and welcoming destination for international students.

If the current volatility continues, more international students may explore alternative options for starting or completing their degree. New international student enrolment dipped by 7% year-over-year in the 2024/25 academic year,³ but many US institutions continue to offer excellent learning and research opportunities for international students, and institutional efforts are underway to stabilize enrolment in 2025/26.

Immigration Guidelines to Redirect Some International Students

Meanwhile, evolving immigration policies, such as adjustments to H-1B visas,⁴ also affect student outlooks. Furthermore, while the US government’s January 1 travel guidance has introduced new restrictions on the issuance of US student visas for individuals from 39 countries, it also prompts prospective students to explore a wider range of global educational opportunities.⁵

For instance, Nigeria, which was the eighth most common place of origin for international students in the US over the most recent academic year, is now seeking new destinations for its talented students.⁶ While current Nigerian students in the US will maintain their visas, prospective international students from Nigeria are poised to enrich other education systems. To illustrate just one impact of this measure, consider that nearly 22,000 Nigerian students were enrolled in studies in the US in 2024/25, and the U.S. Department of Commerce estimated the economic impact of this student population in 2024 was US$889 million.

As the enrolment number above includes students at all points in their studies, it鈥攁nd the related research and innovation metrics, along with the economic support鈥攚on’t disappear from the US overnight. But, over the next few years, these students’ absence will affect the communities and campuses they would have otherwise joined.

3. Further Diversification of Popular Study Destinations

Restrictive policy shifts in major Anglophone destinations contribute to international students’ rising interest in a wider range of study countries. And whether one refers to the expanded list as the Big 12, 14, or 15, international student populations in these destinations will likely continue to grow through 2026.

For example, almost 75% of German universities welcomed equal or higher numbers of new international students over the most recent academic year.⁷ Additionally, survey results from the Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst (DAAD) found that 46% of universities planned to increase the number of English-taught courses they offered year-over-year.

Common themes across other study destinations include strategic investment in their higher education sectors and responsiveness to international trends. These countries are setting ambitious goals and reaching them, sometimes ahead of schedule, as South Korea did by surpassing its target of 300,000 international students two years early.⁸

Other governments are facilitating student pathways to welcome students impacted by policy changes elsewhere: the EduBridge to Spain initiative allows students who are either enrolled in or planning to enrol in American universities to transfer their credits and secure acceptance into Spanish higher education institutions.⁹ While user data on the EduBridge program is forthcoming, targeted programs like these are often successful in attracting bright students and researchers.

These are just a few examples of how emerging study destinations are preparing for the next wave of student mobility and positioning themselves as attractive, stable options. The main takeaway here is that a large number of countries are ready to welcome the skilled students who feel turned away by restrictive policies in the major Anglophone destinations, and that the 鈥淏ig Four鈥� will likely be a misnomer within the next few years.

4. Affordability and Career-Readiness Top Concerns for Students

In 老九品茶’s Fall 2025 Pulse Survey, we asked our network of international student advisors how they expected the sector to evolve. This response highlights students’ changing priorities and the careful balance the sector must strike:

Looking ahead, three clear shifts stand out in international education. First, the demand is increasingly policy driven. For Nigerian students, immigration rules matter far more than university rankings. Second, new destinations are emerging. Ireland, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Mauritius, and the UAE may not carry the prestige of the UK or US, but their friendlier policies make them serious contenders. Third, the financial burden is forcing more creative solutions, including a turn toward scholarships, tuition discounts, and even blended or remote programs that allow students to earn international credentials without shouldering the full cost of relocation.

Respondents to the Fall 2025 老九品茶 Student Pulse Survey were similarly focused on affordability and flexibility:

Only 12% of students noted that affordability wasn’t affecting their study abroad plans. The remaining respondents shared that they were considering a combination of alternate destinations, different program options or durations, or employment options to afford their studies.

Graduate Outcomes Prioritized by Many International Students

Meanwhile, these students are graduating into a competitive global job market. The report from the National Association of Colleges + Employers (NACE) noted that 45% of surveyed US employers characterized the job market for new graduates as “fair.” This is a downgrade compared to the previous four years, when the plurality of employers ranked the job market as “good.” In the UK, employers received over 1 million applications for around 17,000 graduate vacancies in 2024. This marked the highest level of competition for graduate-level roles since the Institute of Student Employers started collecting this data in 1991.¹⁰

Intensified competition from their peers, as well as the replacement of many entry-level roles with automation, means that graduate engagement rates are becoming more than just numbers to prospective students. Graduate engagement is a measurable indicator of whether the investment required for an international education is worth spending at a specific institution. While this is only one dimension of students’ decision-making, institutions should proactively highlight offerings that can jumpstart a new grad’s career, whether it’s their graduates’ success stories, alumni support services, or industry partnerships. A sharper focus on return-on-education-investment and affordability is expected to persist through 2026.

5. TNE Promises Flexibility and Increased Access

Like international students, academic institutions are also adapting to fluctuating policy and a rising cost of living. Outdated funding models, widespread demands, and limited income sources continue to affect many institutions’ operations. For some institutions, transnational education opportunities (TNE) broaden access to international student audiences while providing more diversified funding.

TNE, which encompasses branch campuses, distance learning, joint education institutions and programmes (JEIs and JEPs), and more, is already a well-established approach. Still, it felt omnipresent in the back half of 2025, not least as Indian and Chinese governments updated their guidelines around transnational education.

Both countries increased their regulatory flexibility to allow more international universities to establish branch campuses. In September 2025, China approved a total of 50 new JEPs and JEIs, with the UK, Russia, and the US securing the highest numbers of approvals.¹¹ Meanwhile, nearly 20 institutions from Australia, Italy, the UK, and the US announced branch campuses in India in 2025. The UK’s University of Southampton was the first of this cohort to open, last August.¹²

We expect to see more institutions updating what their international partnerships and learning opportunities look like in 2026. One of the highest-profile examples of TNE on the world stage is its inclusion as a key element for increasing the value of the UK’s education exports in the government’s new .

Upcoming 老九品茶 Events and Insights

2026 will present many opportunities and challenges for teams across the international education sector. To effectively support student success, strategic planning and agile adaptation to the latest trends is critical. At 老九品茶, we’re committed to helping all our partners and the sector at large build the new paths forward.

One of the most exciting ways we’ll do this will be in Delhi this March, where we’ll connect with our network of international student advisors and academic institutions at TRW 2026. This flagship two-day event is a great opportunity to learn what’s next for the sector and meet similarly-minded changemakers.

Want to join us? .

We also encourage you to stay connected by following 老九品茶’s channels on and . And, for direct commentary on how these trends may affect the international education sector, we invite you to , on LinkedIn.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. The PIE, . December 30, 2026.

2. Global News, “.” January 21, 2026.

3. IIE, . November 17, 2025.

4. Financial Express, “.” January 15, 2026.

5. NAFSA, . January 15, 2026.

6. IIE, . November 17, 2025.

7. DAAD, . December 19, 2025.

8. The PIE, “.” October 31, 2025.

9. Language Magazine, “.” September 1, 2025.

10. Euro News, “” October 14, 2025.

11. British Council, . September 24, 2025.

12. The PIE, “” December 24, 2025.

The post International Education Sector Trends to Watch in 2026 appeared first on 老九品茶.

Over the 2024/25 academic year,¹ interest in Irish higher education remained strong. In fact, international student enrolment reached a record high of 44,500, surpassing the previous year鈥檚 total of 40,000.听

Below, we’re taking a closer look at recently released student data from Ireland’s Higher Education Authority (HEA),² and diving into some of the trends shaping this sustained demand. We’ll discuss which programmes were attractive to international students, which student populations were among the fastest-growing in Ireland, overall international enrolment levels, and more.

Ireland’s International Student Population Continues to Grow

For the fourth academic year in a row, the number of international enrolments in Irish higher education institutions grew. In fact, total enrolments reached a new record in 2024/25:

Total international enrolments were up by 10% year-over-year in 2024/25. While this was a slower pace than in the previous academic years, it continued the trend of steady growth across the sector.听

It’s also encouraging that international undergraduate and postgraduate enrolments climbed. Undergraduate enrolments increased by 9% year-over-year while postgraduate enrolments climbed by 11%. In fact, the postgraduate sector is rapidly closing the gap between the two cohorts, with the study level trending toward exceeding undergraduate enrolments by the next academic cycle.听

老九品茶’s Fall 2025 Student Pulse Survey found that, of 老九品茶’s six study destinations, Ireland had the lowest rate of negative perception among international students. Respondents largely saw Ireland as an open, safe, and welcoming destination.听

Ireland’s Top International Student Populations in 2024/25

For the second year in a row, Indian students were the largest international student population in Ireland. In 2024/25, Indian students represented just over 20% of all international enrolments in Ireland. Enrolments from Indian students grew by 30% year-over-year, which made it a key driver of the sector’s growth:听

American students, who had been the largest student population until 2023/24, remained the second-largest cohort. This was also the fourth year in a row that the American international student population grew, a trend that will likely continue as more American students considered studying abroad in 2025 than in 2024. A recent study found that Ireland tied with Italy as the fourth most popular study abroad destination among American students.³

Enrolments from UK students, on the other hand, dipped by 5% year-over-year. This continues an ongoing trend for UK-based international students, as it鈥檚 the fourth year in a row in which their enrolments have dipped. This likely ties into the UK’s departure from both the European Union in late 2020 and the EU-wide Erasmus Programme, which allowed students from participating countries to study abroad without paying international student fees. As , our team predicts that the UK student population in Ireland will start rising again in that academic year.

Elsewhere, enrolment levels for Chinese students leveled out, remaining essentially the same as in 2023/24. Combined, the four largest international student populations in Ireland composed 51% of the total international student body during this past academic year:

Growth Diversifies Across Ireland’s Higher Education Sector

Several emerging international student populations also grew quickly in 2024/25. In fact, 70% of the 30 largest international student populations in Ireland expanded over the most recent academic year:

The Netherlands was the fastest-growing student population, rising by 41% compared to 2023/24 levels. In 2024/25, 6 of the 10 fastest-growing student populations in Ireland were European, which is understandable when nearly 40% of young Europeans think that the freedom to travel and explore other countries is a key benefit of being part of the EU.⁴听

This mobility is encouraged by programs like , which allows students from participating countries (the 27 EU Member States and 6 non-EU associated countries) to study in another participating country for up to 12 months. Students receive a grant that supports their travel and daily living costs, and are exempt from tuition, lab fees or library charges, though they still must cover insurance and student union fees. Initiatives like this are central to improving access to international study opportunities.

That said, three out of the four fastest-growing international student populations over the last two academic years were from outside of Europe: Brazil, India, and Mexico’s student populations each grew by over 25% in the 2023/24 and 2024/25 academic years. By continuing to attract diverse student populations, institutions and government agencies bolster Ireland’s strength as a study destination.

Top Fields of Study in Ireland in 2024/25

Business, administration, and law programmes reclaimed the top spot from health and welfare-related courses as the most popular field of study among international students in Ireland. Almost 20% of international students pursued a business, administration, or law-related course in 2024/25:

Nearly every field of study saw a higher number of enrolments, which can be explained in part by the higher total number of international students in Ireland. That said, some fields grew faster than others. Arts, business, natural sciences, and ICT courses saw double-digit enrolment growth year-over-year. Meanwhile, growth slowed in the health and engineering fields of study.

An exception to this pattern was education programme enrolment, which dropped by 40% year-over-year. It was the only field of study that didn’t grow, and aligns with findings in other parts of the world that demand for education programmes is declining.⁵ Across many of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, while teachers’ annual salary numbers increased between 2015 and 2023, it wasn’t enough to keep up with inflation. As such, many teachers’ purchasing power was lower in 2023 than it was in 2015. Over that timeframe, in Ireland, experienced lower secondary teachers’ purchasing power . This economic shift may contribute to international students seeing teaching as a less attractive career choice.听

For many international students, the financial investment required to live and study abroad is significant. This may have influenced their interest in business, health, and STEM fields, as, especially for STEM graduates, starting salaries can be higher.⁶ Meanwhile, new grads pursuing health care roles are in steady demand, and their training can prepare them for careers across the EU.

Building a Sustainable Future for International Students in Ireland听

As student populations grow, institutions must sustain programs and tools that encourage holistic student success. Per HEA data, in the most recent academic year, 20% out of all students (international and domestic) in Ireland reported that they live with a disability. Learning difficulties like dyslexia or ADHD were reported by 50% of those students, while 38% reported a psychological or emotional condition.听

Life with a disability affects international students in a variety of ways: not least, they experience the additional stressors of living and studying in an unfamiliar country, and may also be adjusting to a learning environment in their non-primary language. They might be less familiar with the student well-being or academic services offered by a HEI, or less willing to seek support when they need it.⁷ For example, an US-based survey of nearly 45,000 college students (domestic and international) found that international students were less likely to report depression-anxiety or anxiety diagnoses despite reporting higher rates of depressive symptoms (42.4%) than their domestic peers (40.2%).⁸听

Compounding this challenge is that as recently as 2023, a survey conducted by the European Union found Ireland was the hardest place in the EU to access mental health services. Respondents cited factors like cost, treatment and diagnosis delays, long waiting lists, and lack of awareness of different services.⁹

Open conversations about the different tools available on-campus and online helps to destigmatize accessing these services. And across campus, using human-forward and tech initiatives can help international students thrive. For example, student support volunteers who speak the languages of your institution’s largest international student populations are crucial connection points. They can help new students build a new social community, and overcome moments of culture shock.听

Meanwhile, technology that gauges student engagement via course logins or missed assignments flags to instructors when a student might be struggling. This enables instructors and student support teams to offer proactive, instead of reactive, care. Instructors can also use tools like to more easily adapt their courses to fit different learning styles, in turn boosting learner engagement and overall student success.

It’s encouraging to see Ireland’s international education sector continue to grow for its fourth straight academic year. Ireland’s excellent education system, welcoming approach to international students, and position as a tech hub within the EU make it an attractive choice for many international students. The 老九品茶 team is proud to support our Irish higher education institution partners in connecting with them.听

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. Unless noted otherwise, dates refer to Ireland’s academic year, which runs from September to May.

2. All data in this article is courtesy of the (HEA). Data methodology changes occurred between the 2023/24 and 2024/25 HEA datasets. So, the data in this article is not directly comparable to our analysis of Ireland鈥檚 international education sector in Dec. 2024. Note that HEA rounds values to the nearest five students.

3. The PIE. “.” July 1, 2025.

4. European Union, “.” February 2025.

5. EducationWeek. “.” October 27, 2025.

6. USA Today. “.” March 9, 2023.

7. Frontiers in Psychiatry. “.” April 15, 2025.

8. National Library of Medicine. “.” January 31, 2021.

9. PLOS One. “.” August 21, 2025.

The post International Enrolments in Ireland Rise for the Fourth Straight Year appeared first on 老九品茶.

The international education sector in Canada is navigating its most significant period of policy-driven change. As we discussed earlier this year, the impacts of 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 caps on student demand have resulted in the majority of recent study permit issuances¹ being granted to students already residing in Canada, fundamentally altering the enrolment mix.

Recent study permit data confirms this historic shift in student volume,² marking a substantial decline in the intake of new international students and demanding strategic recalibration from post-secondary institutions nationwide. This data underscores a stark reality: 老九品茶 projects the federal government is on track to approve only 80,000 new student visas for international post-secondary students in full-year 2025.³ This projected volume represents the lowest intake of new international students witnessed in the past decade, signaling an unprecedented shift in Canada’s global student recruitment model.

Today, we鈥檙e breaking down the full impact of these shifts and taking a closer look at which post-secondary study levels have experienced the greatest impact. We鈥檒l also provide updated projections for 2025, compare recent study permit trends to those earlier in the year, and detail our outlook for 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 international education sector in 2026.

Post-Secondary Study Permits On Track for Decade Low

When 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 study permit caps were implemented in 2024, the government鈥檚 stated intention was to reduce 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 intake of international students by 35%.⁴ A further 10% reduction was implemented in 2025, before caps were set to .

However, the actual impact on student demand and student visa volumes has far surpassed these initial intentions. Rather than dropping by 35% in 2024, study permit approvals for new post-secondary students fell by 52%, dropping below 2018 levels. And, based on new IRCC data for the first eight months of 2025, approvals are set to decline by over 50% again this year:

We project that only 80,000 new study permits will be approved for international post-secondary students in 2025, representing a 62% decline from 2024. This decrease is caused not only by weakening student demand towards Canada, but also by a significant decline in study permit approval rates. Initial cap calculations were based on a 60% study permit approval rate, yet post-secondary approval rates reached only 37% through the first eight months of 2025.⁵

Both low application volumes and low approval rates have naturally led to a decline in the number of new study permits issued. Given that issuance is the final stage of the student visa process鈥攄enoting when a student arrives at a Canadian port of entry to begin their studies鈥攍ow issued visa volumes directly represent fewer international students arriving in Canada to begin their studies, and thus steep declines in enrolment. Although government targets anticipated a ~42% decrease in new international post-secondary students from 2023 to 2025, actual student inflows are projected to drop by 81%. If this projection is realized over the next two months, Canada will have welcomed fewer international post-secondary students in 2025 than in any non-pandemic year over the last decade.

Onshore Extensions Claim 鈪� of All Approvals and Issuances

Despite a sharp decline in new international student enrolment, overall international student populations on Canadian campuses are set to remain comparatively stable. Indeed, while new student inflows have slowed, proportionally more international students are staying in Canada, either extending their study period or enrolling in additional study programs.

This means that international students already in Canada will account for nearly two thirds of all study permit issuances in 2025:

This substantial increase in the proportion of issuances for study permit extensions is nearly inverse to other non-pandemic years. For example, in 2022, only 30% of study permits were issued to onshore students. A higher percentage of issuances to new students represents growth and stability for Canadian institutions, with graduating students replaced by new, incoming international students on campus.

However, the current trend favouring study permit extensions presents a clear risk: international student populations on Canadian campuses are set to decline substantially in the coming years. Students who receive a study permit extension are more likely to be closer to graduation, either because they extended their permit to finish their studies or because they are enrolling in post-graduation programs that tend to have shorter durations. As such, the population of international students on study permit extensions cannot remain stable without an adequate flow of new students.

As new student inflows weaken, there is an increased risk that total international student populations may decline by as much as 50% in 2026. This could create challenging financial conditions for many Canadian institutions鈥攂eyond the impacts noted by many institutions in 2025鈥攁nd fundamentally weaken the diversity of 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 student population.

Canadian Colleges Especially Impacted by Onshore Shift

Over the past year, some institutions have increased their onshore recruitment efforts in response to this changing landscape, aiming to encourage graduates to pursue further qualifications to enhance their career prospects and opportunities. Such alternative strategies are critical for the stability of many Canadian institutions, especially Canadian colleges:

Through the first eight months of 2025, Canadian universities have seen a near 50/50 split among new international students and onshore students receiving study permit issuances. However, Canadian colleges have seen a much stronger skew towards onshore, with 77% of all issued study permits going towards extensions. If this trend continues for the full year, new study permits issued for all Canadian college programs are unlikely to reach 30,000.

This represents a fundamental rebalancing of student inflows to Canadian institutions. Colleges are on pace to account for about 30% of all new Canadian study permits issued in 2025, down from 57% just two years ago. Given that recent PGWP changes have a significantly greater impact on college graduates than university grads, and given that many in-demand jobs are aligned with college level programs,⁶ it鈥檚 likely that the compound effect of Canadian government policy changes will create significant challenges in addressing labour shortages in the coming years.

Summer Study Permit Data Shows Soft Recovery

It鈥檚 worth noting that there are some signs of soft recovery for 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 beleaguered international education sector. Study permit data for the summer of 2025 shows a marked increase in study permit approval rates. While average approval rates did not surpass 30% until May of this year, approval rates in August grew to over 55%:

This increase in approval rates came in the nick of time, as the summer months are typically Canada’s busiest application period. Combining a rising approval rate during this busy season led to a notable increase in study permit approvals during the Jun鈥揂ug months. Over 35,000 new study permits were approved for international post-secondary students over these three months, compared to just over 23,000 in the five months prior. This increase was especially pronounced for Canadian universities, where August alone accounted for over one-third of the year-to-date total in new study permit approvals. For Canadian universities, this may be a sign that study permit approval rates are finally returning to IRCC target rates, making potential student flows more predictable heading into 2026.

However, for Canadian colleges, the outlook for full-year 2025 is more challenging. The summer months did show some improvement in study permit approvals, but average approval rates remained around 25%. With three-quarters of international applicants denied a study permit for Canadian college programs, PAL allocations are a major concern. Low approval rates may lead some colleges to centralize their recruitment efforts towards high conversion countries, significantly reducing on-campus diversity and further undermining 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 global image as welcoming to all students. Instead, we encourage Canadian colleges to work with collaborative partners like 老九品茶 to increase student conversion from all source countries through rigorous application screening, smart program matching, and recruitment network training.

Strategic Recalibration for a Path Forward

颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 international education sector has reached a pivotal juncture, with data from the first eight months of 2025 showing how critical it is for post-secondary institutions to recalibrate their recruitment efforts. Our projected decade-low intake of only 80,000 new international post-secondary students for the full year, coupled with unchanged 2026 student caps, confirms that 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 post-secondary sector is unlikely to achieve stability or sustainability in the coming years.

The key takeaway for institutions is the looming demographic cliff. The current reliance on onshore study permit extensions means the international student population faces a potential steep decline in 2026 and 2027, as current students graduate without sufficient new offshore students to replace them. Institutions need to actively engage on international enrolment to try to mitigate some of these declines, and they should also leverage technology solutions that reduce resource needs while providing a high-impact experience to students and recruitment teams.

This challenge is most acute for Canadian colleges. Colleges must focus resources on partners that ensure rigorous applicant screening and strong study-plan alignment to improve approval rates. Additionally, institutions need to ensure they provide continued support to their current international student populations, as leveraging word-of-mouth, online testimonials, and alumni networks will likely be necessary to attain full PAL allocation usage next year.

For all institutions, sustainability is now contingent upon a dual strategy: proactive risk mitigation and selective growth. The path forward requires moving beyond reactive management to structural adaptation. By embracing data-driven decision-making and aggressively improving applicant quality across the recruitment network, Canadian institutions can navigate this policy-constrained environment and secure a more stable, albeit smaller, international education sector.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. Study permit data is tracked based on three discrete stages: study permit submission, study permit processing, and study permit issuance. Study permit processing (approval/refusal) denotes when a final decision is made by IRCC (or CBSA) whether to accept or reject the student鈥檚 study permit application (or the student opts to withdraw their application). Study permit issuance denotes when a student arrives at a Canadian port of entry and receives their approved study permit application.

2. All data is sourced from unless otherwise noted. Most recent government data cited in this article spans January to August 2025. All figures associated with full-year 2025 are 老九品茶 projections based on Jan鈥揂ug 2025 figures and full-year trends from previous calendar years. Projections may be subject to change based on changing conditions and source data.

3. The terms student visa and study permit are generally used interchangeably for Canadian international students. Rather than student visas, Canada provides accepted international students with study permits, which allow those students to enrol in classes at Canadian institutions. When a student is accepted for a study permit, they are also usually provided with a visitor visa, which allows that student to enter Canada for their studies. In this article, we鈥檒l use the terms interchangeably.

4. 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 2025 study permit caps are noted as being applicable to , rather than study permit approval figures as was used in .

5. Initial cap calculations were 鈥攙ia provincial top-ups and reallocations鈥攕hifting the projected approval rate to 53% for 2024.

6. Such as nursing, hospitality, trades, early childhood education, and supply chain management.

The post Canada’s International Student Cap Causes Greater Declines Than COVID-19 Shutdown appeared first on 老九品茶.

The international education landscape has experienced numerous shifts over the past two years. Major policy updates and fresh economic realities are redrawing the worldwide map of student mobility. While studying abroad remains as popular as ever, these students are adopting a more strategic approach. Today鈥檚 international students exert greater agency, actively weighing costs and post-study opportunities, while also considering options beyond the most popular destinations. This generation is making informed choices that are already charting new pathways across the global learning landscape.

To understand how these students’ goals are changing amid an evolving international education sector, the team at 老九品茶 ran our seventh Student Pulse Survey in September 2025, refreshing our survey questions in collaboration with the team at the Canadian Bureau for International Education (CBIE).¹ Nearly 300 future international students shared their thoughts, detailing everything from which destinations they had in mind to which factors are most influential when choosing where to study.

Below, we’ll explore current student and advisor perceptions of top study destinations, how different program areas are capturing student interest, popular post-study plans, and more.

Canada Retains its Lead as a Popular Study Destination

Government policies in major destinations have impacted student mobility flows, and caused substantial shifts in student visa trends. Despite the impact of student caps and PGWP changes, student interest levels in Canada remained high, which boosted its lead on the US to keep the top spot. In fact, 95% of respondents were interested in Canada as a study destination, to some extent:

The most notable change in student destination preferences is that strong interest in the US declined compared to the previous three surveys. When compared to the Spring 2025 Student Pulse Survey, interest in studying in the US dropped by 9 percentage points among respondents who chose “extremely interested,” and by 1 percentage point among students who chose “very interested.” Looking back to our Fall 2024 survey, these outlooks dropped by 10 percentage points and 4 percentage points year-over-year, respectively. Given that becoming an international student can be a stressful, complex process, factors like added scrutiny on US student visa applications³ and the government’s revocation of thousands of student visas earlier this year⁴ may be shifting students’ outlook.

Comparing Student and Advisor Perceptions of Top Study Destinations’ Safety and Welcome of International Students

As government rhetoric and policies related to immigration shift, international students are paying attention. To gauge how students think they’d be treated while abroad, we asked them to rank six popular destinations on how open, safe, and welcoming they are. In our Fall 2025 Recruitment Partner Pulse Survey, we also asked international student advisors for their perspective on this topic.

Generally, students’ outlooks are more cautious than their advisors’:

In most cases, the majority of students agreed all six destinations were open, safe, and welcoming. However, only 43% of students either strongly agreed or agreed that this was true of the US, the lowest positive sentiment among the six destination options.⁵

Across the board, students were more likely to have more polarized negative feelings: the proportion of students who strongly disagreed a place was welcoming was always greater than those who only disagreed. Only a small percentage of student advisors strongly disagreed that any of the six destinations were welcoming鈥攔anging from 0.8% to 5.7%鈥攚hile the proportion of students who strongly disagreed was higher, from 9% to 18%.

By contrast, students were much more likely to agree a destination was welcoming, rather than strongly agreeing. However, high levels of strong agreement were more common among student advisors. For example, where 47% of advisors strongly agreed the UK was an open, safe, and welcoming destination, only 22% of students strongly agreed. This disparity could have many causes, from students taking in more polarized content through social media and news feeds, to personal connections with current students, to having a more cautious outlook as they’re the ones who will actually be living abroad.

Everyone involved in supporting international students, from student advisors to institutional staff and family members, should recognize the importance of checking in with students to understand any concerns they have about studying abroad. Many concerns will be valid, but it’s vital to guide students away from misinformation and provide context, as oversimplification of complex issues in short form content can also have a significant effect on students’ perspectives. Sometimes, even taking time to answer extra questions or offer a patient response can make a difference, and help future students feel more welcome. For institutions, this means ensuring there is a wealth of reliable, factual, and easy-to-understand information available to international students about your campuses, your program offerings, post-study work opportunities, and more.

Through understanding their perspective, providing fact-checked information, and advocating for international education in our spheres of influence, we can all ensure tomorrow’s leaders and innovators are well-prepared for the next step in their study journeys.

Students Increasingly Considering African and Asian Study Destinations

In a time of increased student agency, prospective students have more destination options than ever before. While most of our survey respondents were focused on institutions in Australia, Canada, Ireland, Germany, the UK, and the US, 38% were considering studies in other destinations. This proportion is up 3 percentage points compared to our Spring 2025 survey.

When respondents were asked about other destinations students they were considering, we found that more students are considering a wider range of options:⁶

Nigeria was the most popular alternative study destination, cited by 12% of survey participants. Nigerian students were also the largest survey demographic (32% of participants), so it’s possible many of these students are considering domestic and international options. However, this interest may also include other student populations who, seeing the Nigerian government’s push to develop their post-secondary sector, are considering studies closer to home.

France and New Zealand also ranked highly among alternative destinations, securing interest from 10% and 9% of students respectively, rounding out the top three destinations. Meanwhile, Finland (8%) slipped to fourth place鈥攄own from third in our Spring 2025 Student Pulse survey鈥攁nd the Netherlands and Sweden tied for fifth. The Asian destination most often cited by participants was Japan, which captured 6% of responses and tied with Norway in sixth place. Ghana was the second-most popular African destination, coming seventh with Switzerland as each captured 5% of responses.

Alongside Nigeria, Ghana’s growing international student population is shaping student flows in Africa and worldwide.

Student Interest in Business Programs Remains Strong

When asked which fields future students planned to pursue, business programs like commerce, marketing, and management remained the most popular. 40% of respondents were interested in business programs,⁷ followed by math, computer science, and IT programs (24%), then health and medical programs (22%):

While student interest levels in these program areas were fairly consistent with past results there was one significant outlier. Although engineering still attracted the fourth-highest level of student interest, the proportion of students interested in engineering (16%) was at its lowest level since we added this question to the survey in spring 2023. This shift could be driven by fewer or more limited post-study work policies that favour STEM fields in major destinations,⁸ or due to affordability concerns associated with STEM programs. We don鈥檛 anticipate that this trend will persist in 2026 but our team will monitor future surveys.

Future Students Aim for Nursing, Research, and Business Careers

When we asked students about their career plans after graduation, we saw a wide variety of goals. In this edition of the Student Pulse Survey, nursing appeared more than any other career choice. This is good news for healthcare systems worldwide, as new grads can fill staffing gaps while bringing technological savvy and innovative ideas to the organizations they work with.

Let’s take a look at students’ dream careers:

While some are reliably popular鈥攍ike business management, software engineering, and research, which along with “business” as a general field made up the five most popular career choices鈥攐ur survey results also highlight how interest is shifting in other fields. Given the current enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI), it makes sense that students plan to pursue careers in fields like IT, machine learning, and cybersecurity. Data scientists and analysts also appeared among the top 10 career choices.

Elsewhere, an uptick in interest around aviation and aerospace stood out in these fall results. From earning their pilot’s license to working with NASA, flight and space-related careers appeared in 4% of responses, versus 0.5% of responses in Spring 2025. This increased interest may be linked to growing demand for those trained in aviation. As global air fleets expand, especially in the Asia Pacific region, and current pilots and crew retire, one sector forecast predicts nearly 1.5 million new civil aviation employees will be needed by 2034.⁹ Students interested in aviation programs now could be great candidates to fill those roles after they graduate.

Over One-Third of Students Plan to Gain International Work Experience

Although post-study plans can change, it speaks to international students’ planning skills that only 6% of respondents weren’t sure where they wanted to be after graduation:

While 27% of students plan to return home immediately, 43% hope to work in their study country temporarily, leveraging programs like Canada’s Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP), the Graduate visa in the UK, or OPT (Optional Practical Training) in the US to build their skills and network. A further 22% hope to pursue permanent residency after graduation, while only 1% plan to move to a third destination.

Whether they plan to build a career locally or internationally, it matters to students how well institutions prepare new grads to excel. In fact, over 60% of respondents noted high graduate employment rates were a key factor when considering which program to apply to, second only to affordable tuition rates.¹⁰

Build Your International Student Strategy with 老九品茶

The Student Pulse Survey gives us a helpful look into future students’ goals, motivations, and challenges related to becoming an international student. Sending out a hearty thank you to the hundreds of students who took the time to share their thoughts!

If you’re looking for more in-depth sector analysis, stay tuned for 老九品茶’s 2026 Trends Report this November. Every year, we take a comprehensive look at how the sector is evolving鈥攁nd how your team can stay ahead of the curve.

If you’re part of an institution interested in honing your international recruitment strategy, 老九品茶’s sector insights, real-time dashboards, and global network of partners can help you reach established and emerging student audiences, driving diversity and innovation on your campus. Start a conversation with our Commercial Partnerships team today.

Taryn Graham leverages over 15 years of communications expertise from the public and private sectors in her work with 老九品茶’s Strategic Content and Thought Leadership team, spanning 老九品茶 Insights and the main blog. She also manages the biannual Student and Recruitment Partner Pulse Surveys.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. The Fall 2025 老九品茶 Student Pulse Survey ran from September 2鈥�15, 2025, and received 291 responses from individuals in 61 student markets.

2. Australia, Canada, Germany, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

3. Makiya Seminera and Christopher L. Keller, ABC News. “.” Oct. 8, 2025.

4. Jeffrey R. Young, The Hechinger Report. “.” May 1, 2025.

5. “Disagreed” here includes students who chose “disagree” (11.3% of respondents) and “strongly disagree” (18.1%).

6. Students could share one or more destinations in their response.

7. Survey participants could choose more than one field of study.

8. Including the end of Australia鈥檚 for fields with verified skill shortages, Canadian , and recent discussions about .

9. CAE, “.” Accessed Oct. 16, 2025.

10. When answering this question, students could select up to 5 factors from a list of 10.

The post Survey Highlights Canada’s Strength as a Destination Among Future International Students appeared first on 老九品茶.

Now more than ever, affordability has become one of the top concerns for international students hoping to pursue their study dreams abroad. Inflation and economic uncertainty have made nearly every aspect of day-to-day life more expensive, shifting student flows and impacting overall student mobility. That鈥檚 because for international students, tighter economic conditions impact not only costs at home, but also planned expenses such as rent, groceries, utilities, and more at their destination.

Today, we are taking a closer look at the two most significant costs for international students studying in Canada: tuition and rent. We鈥檒l look at average undergraduate and graduate tuition costs in every Canadian province, as well as dive into rental costs in major cities coast to coast. We鈥檒l also discuss what Canadian institutions can do to help international students address affordability concerns.

How Much Does Canadian Tuition Cost for International Students in 2025/26?

For most prospective international students, the cost of a study abroad program is likely the largest financial consideration they face. Many students rely on financial support from their parents or family, viewing international education as an investment in their future success and career growth. For international students studying in Canada, tuition fees can account for more than half of their annual expenses.²

On average, a four-year undergraduate program at a Canadian institution beginning in 2025/26 will cost over $177,000 in tuition alone.³ By contrast, a two-year graduate program may cost less than $50,000 in tuition.

The following chart shows how average annual tuition costs for international students in Canada have changed since 2021/22:

In 2025/26, the average tuition for international students studying at the undergraduate level nearly reached $42,000. This was a 4% increase over the previous academic year, although it was the lowest year-over-year increase since 2021/22.⁴

Postgraduate tuition rates also rose by 3% in 2025/26. While this increase was similar to the rate of change for undergraduate tuition, average yearly tuition for postgraduate programs was 42% lower than undergraduate rates. This lower rate largely reflects the difference in course loads between the two study levels, with many graduate students taking fewer courses per semester.⁵

These increases come at a time when tuition costs are becoming more important as a differentiating factor between institutions. Our Fall 2025 Recruitment Partner Pulse survey revealed that 鈥渃ost of studying鈥� remains the top priority for international students considering where to study, yet Canada is perceived as less affordable than European destinations like Germany and Ireland. This means that Canadian institutions need to highlight unique program opportunities, post-study career assistance, on-campus services, and post-graduation employment rates to clearly demonstrate the value of an international education on their campuses to prospective students.

Keep an eye out for an upcoming ApplyInsight article on our Fall 2025 Student Pulse Survey, which will provide fresh insights into prospective student opinions from around the world.

Average Tuition Cost for International Students by Province

Variances in tuition rates are influenced by a number of factors, including program length, delivery method, and type of institution. Yet the most substantial impact on tuition paid over the course of a program often arises from where a student decides to study in Canada.

Taking a closer look at Canadian tuition affordability by province, there are significant variations at both the undergrad and graduate levels:

Ontario remains the most popular provincial destination for international students, accounting for 48% of all study permit holders at the end of 2024. Although this is a five point decline from 2023, Ontario tuition rates still have a substantial impact on national averages. And, this high demand means that Ontario institutions often feature higher tuition rates due to how competitive acceptances are for in-demand programs.

Undergraduate tuition in Ontario in 2025/26 was almost 25% higher than the next most expensive province, British Columbia. Likewise, undergrad tuition for international students in Ontario was more than double that of Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, PEI, and Manitoba. For price-conscious students, studying in these lower-cost provinces can make their Canadian undergraduate journey significantly more affordable.

Based on average 2025/26 tuition rates, a four-year undergraduate program in Newfoundland and Labrador would cost around $75,000. By contrast, the same program in Ontario would cost nearly $200,000.

Differences in postgraduate tuition were less pronounced, although there were some outliers. Although Ontario was the only province to exceed the national average for undergraduate and postgraduate tuition, British Columbia, Nova Scotia, and Ontario all surpassed the national average postgraduate tuition. On the other hand, both Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador featured postgraduate tuition under half the national average, making them the most affordable destinations for international postgraduate students in 2025/26.

Comparing provincial tuition rates for both study levels over the past five years shows that nearly all provinces have had regular average tuition increases year-over-year:

All provinces experienced increased undergraduate tuition for international students in 2025/26. At the postgraduate level, Newfoundland and Labrador鈥檚 average postgraduate tuition remained stable in 2025/26, coming in at less than 25% of average postgraduate tuition in Ontario.

As in prior years, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia showed the greatest parity in undergraduate and postgraduate tuition rates. However, they are trending in opposite directions, with increases in undergraduate tuition in Nova Scotia outpacing rising postgraduation tuition rates. By contrast, New Brunswick is trending toward higher postgraduate tuition rates than undergraduate ones by 2027/28.

How Much Does Rent Cost for International Students in Major Canadian Cities in 2025?

While tuition is typically the most substantial expense for many international students in Canada, housing costs are often close behind. This is one of the main reasons that the Canadian government increased proof of funds requirements in 2024 and 2025, to better reflect the current realities of cost of living in Canada. Despite the influence of the student cap on total international student populations, in many destination markets, especially in major urban centres.

颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 now stands at $22,895, plus first-year tuition and travel costs, to ensure students are financially prepared for success during their study abroad journey.

To understand how much international students will likely pay in rent over the course of their programs, the chart below shows the average rent for one bedroom apartments in select Canadian census metropolitan areas (CMAs) for 2025:⁶

The average rent for a one bedroom apartment in Vancouver remains much higher than other urban centres, while Toronto, Victoria, and Ottawa have become increasingly similarly priced. However, over the past year, rent in Ottawa and Victoria has largely remained stable. Meanwhile, Toronto and Vancouver both experienced a near 5% decrease in one bedroom rent since Q1 2024 due to .

Based on 2025/26 rates, an international student studying in Vancouver can expect to pay over $110,000 in rent over a full four-year undergraduate program.

In fact, rent increases from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025 were most common among smaller Canadian cities. One bedroom rent in Regina increased 10% year-over-year, with similar increases in rent occurring in Saint John. Other cities, including St. John鈥檚, Winnipeg, and Saskatoon experienced more modest 5% increases. By comparison, rent prices for similar accommodations in Calgary, Halifax, and Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge saw 5% declines year-over-year.

As with tuition rates, the Prairies and Atlantic Canada offer higher affordability in terms of average rent. The two most cost-effective CMAs are in Atlantic Canada, namely Saint John and St. John鈥檚. And, excluding the rapidly growing cities of Halifax and Calgary, monthly rents remain below $1,300 for a one bedroom apartment in all Prairie and Atlantic provinces. Quebec CMAs such as Qu茅bec City and Montr茅al also offer sub-$1,350 average rent, though Quebec is the third most expensive province for international student tuition.

In short, while rental costs have stabilized across Canada over the past year, price-sensitive students can find more affordable options by considering less populated CMAs.

What Canadian Institutions Can Do to Help Address Affordability for International Students

Student mobility towards Canada has been on the decline since the introduction of 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 student cap. We recently projected that at least 50% fewer new study permits will be approved in 2025, and study permit approval rates remain at near all-time lows. And, prospective students are increasingly facing Canadian study permit refusals due to lack of financial resources, a necessary check to best support student success in 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 ever-changing economic landscape.

Helping students prepare for and understand the financial realities of studying abroad is critical. Students need to ensure they understand the full financial picture before they embark on their study abroad journey. But tuition must also remain affordable enough that institutions can attract students from a wide variety of backgrounds and lived experiences, in a time when students have more destination choices than ever for their study abroad journey. This diversity is important not only for expanding the experiences of domestic and international students on Canadian campuses, but also for the future growth of the Canadian economy.

While study permit caps have created significant volatility for many institutions鈥� budgets and financial planning, institutions still have a major role to play in helping students understand and overcome financial challenges. Institutions need to ensure that international students have ready access to clear information about scholarships, on-campus work opportunities, and student housing options. And, institutions should ensure they are promoting the value of their programs for students鈥� life-long success, especially as price-conscious students and families consider the potential return on their investment.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. Data courtesy of . All currency in CAD.

2. Based on study permit proof of finance requirements, which require students to demonstrate they have sufficient money to pay for living expenses. As of Sep 1, 2025, the amount required per year for living expenses is $22,895.

3. Based on an estimated 4% increase in tuition costs in 2026/27, 2027/28, and 2028/29.

4. Average undergraduate tuition for international students increased by 6% in each year from 2021/22 to 2024/25.

5. Excluding professional degrees such as those in business (MBA), law, or medicine, which typically have significantly higher annual tuition rates but which account for a smaller portion of overall graduate student populations.

6. According to Statistic 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 鈥溾��, released on June 25, 2025. Off-campus accommodations only.

The post The Cost of an International Education in Canada in 2025 appeared first on 老九品茶.

颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 international education landscape has been defined by rapid and significant change over the past two years. For students, one of the most impactful shifts has been to their ability to work in Canada after graduation. Policy changes affecting 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) program include the introduction of new language proficiency standards, restrictions on PGWP eligibility for graduates of public-private partnership (PPP) colleges, and new field of study requirements for non-degree programs.

These updates to the PGWP program were part of a broader government strategy to manage student inflows, which also included . Together, these moves signal a more targeted approach to international education. Now, with fewer international students entering the country and a narrower path to PGWP eligibility for many who do, the full effect of these changes is coming into view.

Due to the culmination of these policy changes, Canada is on track to approve 30% fewer post-graduation work permits in 2025 compared to 2024 levels.¹ Today, we鈥檒l break down which student populations, study levels, and fields of study have been most impacted by this PGWP downturn.

Number of PGWP Approvals Could Reach Post-Pandemic Low in 2025

Since the pandemic, January through June (H1) has often accounted for roughly half of PGWP approvals in a given year.² Based on H1 2025 trends, we鈥檙e currently forecasting that Canada will approve about 143,600 PGWPs for the full 2025 calendar year:

Canadian immigration officials approved nearly 75,000 PGWP applications during H1 2025, representing a 29% decline over H1 2024. However, this downward trend accelerated in both May and June, with approvals falling by more than 56% year-over-year in both months. If this accelerated downturn continues throughout the rest of the summer and extends into the early autumn months, PGWP approvals for the full-year could end up below 130,000, the lowest total since the pandemic.

For institutions, a sharp reduction in PGWP approvals undercuts one of 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 most important recruitment advantages. The ability to transition from study to work has long been a defining factor for students choosing Canada over other destinations. As fewer students gain access to post-graduation work opportunities, institutions may find it harder to attract applicants. This could translate into increased competition between institutions for a smaller pool of eligible students.

The broader Canadian economy also stands to feel the effects. PGWP holders have been a vital source of skilled talent in sectors facing chronic shortages, from healthcare to technology. A contraction in approvals means fewer international graduates entering the workforce, potentially destabilizing industries facing skills shortages that have come to depend on new graduates who fuel innovation and growth.

In H1 2025, 96% of PGWP applicants were approved, two percentage points lower than in H1 2024.

Colleges Account for Nearly Two in Every Three PGWP Approvals in 2025

Since the pandemic, at least 58% of PGWP approvals have gone to college students every year. In fact, this proportion has been rising yearly since 2022:

In H1 2025, over 48,000 college students were approved for a PGWP, accounting for 65% of all PGWP approvals during this time. College-level approvals had the slowest year-over-year decline (-25%), and their 97% approval rate was tied for the highest among study levels. However, this apparent resilience is likely temporary. Many of these approvals reflect students who began their studies before the new PGWP restrictions were introduced. As that cohort graduates out of the system, a steeper decline in college-level approvals is likely, especially as the new policies begin to influence student demand in upcoming intakes.

In contrast to the temporary resilience seen at the college level, the downward trend for undergraduate PGWP approvals was more pronounced. In H1 2025, nearly 6,700 PGWPs were approved for undergraduate students. This represents a 37% year-over-year decline, and brought this cohort鈥檚 share of total approvals down to 9%. This fall in volume was coupled with a lower success rate, with the approval rate for undergraduates dropping six percentage points to 89%, the lowest of any study level.

This poses a unique challenge for Canadian universities. In an environment where shorter, more vocational college programs are viewed as a faster and more certain return on investment, universities must more clearly articulate the long-term career advantages of a bachelor’s degree. Embedding practical work experiences, such as co-op programs and internships, could be crucial for demonstrating clear career pathways and ensuring undergraduate degrees remain an attractive and viable option for prospective international students.

Nearly 12,000 master鈥檚 students were approved for a PGWP in H1 2025, 31% lower than in H1 2024.

Business Students See Larger Proportion of PGWP Approvals in 2025

The overall downturn in PGWP approvals hasn鈥檛 affected all fields of study equally. Instead, it has accelerated a significant shift in market share across disciplines:

Business and management programs have emerged as the primary beneficiary of the PGWP distribution shift. In H1 2025, graduates from these programs accounted for 44% of all PGWP approvals, up five percentage points year-over-year. However, the nearly 33,000 PGWP approvals in this field still represented a 21% decline over H1 2024. This means the field鈥檚 expanded proportion of PGWP approvals is a direct result of steeper declines across other disciplines.

Nowhere are those steeper declines more evident than in key STEM and health fields. PGWP approvals for engineering graduates fell by 53% year-over-year, bringing the field鈥檚 share down to just 6%, down four percentage points over H1 2021. Computing and IT and health and general sciences also faced significant declines, with approvals for both down 31% year-over-year.

These shifts carry important implications for 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 talent pipeline. The steep drop in PGWP approvals among graduates in engineering, computing, and health fields means fewer internationally educated workers entering sectors already facing persistent labour shortages. While business and management programs now make up a larger share of approvals, the reduced flow of graduates into STEM and health-related roles could exacerbate existing skills gaps and challenge workforce planning in critical industries.

With many business programs (particularly at the college level) no longer PGWP eligible, we expect STEM fields of study will account for a larger share of PGWP approvals over the next couple of years.

PGWP Approvals, Approval Rate Down For Majority of Student Populations

Of the 20 largest international student populations by PGWP application volume, 17 saw a decline in PGWP approvals in H1 2025:

Despite the overall downturn, Indian students continued to dominate PGWP approvals, accounting for 59% of all permits issued in both H1 2024 and H1 2025. With such a large share, India plays a central role in shaping the broader PGWP trends. For example, the 29% drop in approval volume for Indian students closely aligned with the overall year-over-year decline across all applicants.

By contrast, most other large source markets recorded similar or steeper declines in both approval volume and grant rates. Chinese students, for example, saw a 30% decline in approvals and a five-point decrease in their PGWP approval rate. Filipino and Iranian students also saw significant drops in volume鈥攄own 41% and 44%, respectively鈥攄espite maintaining high success rates.

Bucking this widespread trend, three student populations posted positive growth in PGWP approvals. Students from Nepal were the standout, with approvals jumping 25% year-over-year while maintaining a stellar 99% grant rate. Nigerian and Ghanaian students also saw higher approval totals, up 4% and 8% respectively, despite lower approval rates.

These student population trends paint a picture of an evolving global landscape. While India remains a steadfast anchor of Canada’s PGWP system, the simultaneous growth from markets like Nepal, Nigeria, and Ghana is a clear indicator of where future opportunities in student mobility lie. Institutions that continue to strengthen their presence in India while also expanding outreach and support in high-potential markets will be better positioned to respond to shifting global demand.

What Comes Next for PGWP?

The PGWP contraction in H1 2025 marks a significant turning point in 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 post-study sector. For years, the program served as a key bridge between international education and successful careers in Canada, reinforcing 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 appeal in a competitive global market. But as eligibility narrows and fewer students gain access to post-graduation work opportunities, institutions and students alike are adjusting to a new reality.

This transition is already reshaping application trends, student decision-making, and institutional recruitment strategies. Fields of study and source markets that were once highly active may see further declines in future cohorts as recent policy changes ripple through the system.

In this evolving environment, institutional resilience will depend on strategic alignment, such as evaluating how program portfolios align with both student demand and 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 labour market needs. Similarly, understanding the dynamics between established and emerging student populations will be essential for building a diverse and sustainable recruitment corridor for the years ahead. Ultimately, the institutions that thrive will be those that best help their students navigate this new complexity with clarity and purpose.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. All data courtesy of .

2. Calendar year 2022 was an outlier to this trend, where H1 accounted for only 34% of PGWP approvals for the full year. This was likely partially due to COVID-19 delaying students鈥� travel abroad plans until late 2020; fewer students beginning programs during the half of 2020 would mean there were fewer eligible students to apply for a PGWP two years later.

The post Canadian PGWP Approvals Forecasted To Drop by 30% in 2025 appeared first on 老九品茶.

The past two years have been marked by changes to the international education landscape, yet study abroad demand remains high. Despite the pace of policy shifts, international student resilience and dedication persists, and student counsellors remain committed to helping students achieve their study abroad dreams.

In August and September 2025, the 老九品茶 team connected with our network of student recruitment professionals to gauge how government changes in destination countries were affecting interest levels, how student numbers and motivations were evolving, and which countries students were aiming for. Nearly 400 recruitment professionals contributed to our Fall 2025 老九品茶 Recruitment Partner Pulse Survey.¹ We’re grateful to everyone who took the time to share their insights.

To see how student patterns and choices have changed over time, we’ve presented the most recent survey data alongside surveys from 2023, 2024, and spring 2025. While some previously shifting trends have stabilized, our results below illustrate the ripple effects of policy changes in the months and years after substantial changes.

Students See the UK as the Most Welcoming Destination, as Perception of the US Dips

In our survey, we asked recruitment professionals to answer 12 questions about the trends they鈥檝e observed among the students they work with. When asked how welcoming a destination is perceived to be for international students, the UK kept its top spot from our Spring 2025 Pulse survey.

While the release of the UK government’s White Paper on immigration³ has industry professionals watching for upcoming changes, the UK’s overall welcoming rhetoric and recent policy stability mean many see the UK as a great place to send international students.

Meanwhile, participants’ answers relating to the US changed the most since Spring 2025:

Only 50% of survey respondents agreed the US was an open, safe, and welcoming destination for international students in Fall 2025, dropping 24 percentage points from Spring 2025.⁴ 31% of respondents had a neutral outlook on this statement while the remaining 19% disagreed.⁵

Several factors likely contribute to this shift in perception, including the US government’s downsizing of the Department of Education, revoking hundreds of international student visas earlier this year,⁶ and pausing new student visa application interviews through May and June鈥�some of the busiest months for student visa applications鈥攖o integrate higher levels of scrutiny.

That said, increasingly polarized views around destination countries expanded beyond just the US. The number of respondents who strongly disagreed that a given destination was open, safe, and welcoming grew for all six destinations in Fall 2025 versus Spring 2025, though the proportion of respondents who selected this option was notably larger for the US.

In general, outlooks on Australia, Canada, Ireland, Germany, and the UK were comparatively stable. The largest variances beyond the US shift were that respondents’ perception of Canada improved by five percentage points versus the Spring 2025 survey, from 79% to 84% agreement, and respondents’ perception of Ireland dropped by the same amount, from 79% to 74% agreement. As a result of those shifts in sentiment, Canada climbed back to second place from fourth in the previous survey, while Australia rounded out the top three with Germany close behind.

Optimistic student outlook towards the UK is evident in both our survey and recent UK student visa data. Student visa demand rose by 16% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter in 2024, making it the third consecutive reporting period where main applicant UK Student visa applications rose.

Future Students Find the UK Most Attractive as a Destination

When we asked study abroad professionals about destinations in a more general sense, the US remained a compelling option for many respondents. While the UK received top honours for this metric, with 82% of respondents agreeing their students found it an attractive destination, just over two-thirds of respondents said their students thought the US was still a ‘very attractive’ or ‘attractive’ option:

This fall, perception of Canada improved by 3 percentage points to 74% attractiveness compared to the Spring 2024 survey, although this remained down 6 percentage points versus results from a year ago.

Other destinations’ attractiveness levels improved year-over-year, capturing some of this shifting attention: Australia’s reported attractiveness dipped by one percentage point to 66% compared to the spring, but it was up by 9 percentage points versus Fall 2024. Likewise, 60% of respondents found Germany an attractive destination in this edition of the survey, dipping slightly from 63% this spring yet rising by 7 percentage points from 53% in Fall 2024. Meanwhile, 50% of respondents found Ireland attractive in both Fall and Spring 2025, up from 42% in Fall 2024.

Increased Interest in Diverse Study Destinations

Although student interest in Big Four destinations,⁷ Germany, and Ireland improved or stabilized over the past six months, nearly three out of every four respondents to our Fall 2025 survey noted their students were considering alternative destinations. Let鈥檚 look at where else these future students plan to go:

This fall, New Zealand was the most popular alternative destination among survey respondents, jumping up from third place in our previous survey.⁸ 21% of respondents noted their students were interested in the diverse study opportunities, laid-back culture, and beautiful cities and wild spaces that New Zealand has to offer. This level of interest nearly doubled versus our Spring 2025 survey findings, where 11% of respondents listed it as a destination of interest for their students.

Meanwhile, France shifted from first to second place among respondents and Finland dropped to third. Malta and Spain rounded out the five most popular alternative destinations.

Despite this shift, the proportion of recruitment counsellors whose students were interested in France also rose four percentage points to 20%. With affordable higher education tuition thanks to government subsidies,⁹ world-class cultural opportunities, Francophone and Anglophone classes, and its membership in the European Union, France’s appeal remained strong.

While Finland also offers English-language instruction at many of its institutions and is part of the EU, fewer respondents noted interest in Finland. This shift may be influenced by recent government announcements, including that as of August 2026, international students will be charged full-cost tuition. Moreover, universities may no longer use public funding for international student scholarships, significantly impacting affordability of Finnish programs.¹⁰

In general, interest in European destinations remained strong: 8 out of the top 10 destinations cited are in Europe, and “European countries” rose to eighth most-common answer when combined with the results for “Schengen countries.”

Outside of Europe, interest in destinations like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) grew to 6% of respondents (including several specific callouts to Dubai). The UAE rose past Singapore, as did mainland China, in this survey. Several respondents also noted they鈥檙e supporting students interested in Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia, demonstrating rising student interest in destinations across Asia.

Overall Interest in Studying Abroad Stabilizes

When we zoom out to take a look at overall student interest in studying abroad, results show that demand isn鈥檛 slowing down. For the first time since Q3 2023, over 20% of respondents shared they’d worked with significantly more students quarter-over-quarter:

The total number of respondents who had worked with more students dipped by three percentage points since the spring to 47%. However, looking at engagement levels over a longer timeframe, it’s encouraging that more recruitment professionals are reporting strengthening student demand year-over-year.

When your institution works with 老九品茶, we review study abroad applications for accuracy and completion before they are submitted. This application pre-screening, along with our AI-powered program matching and recruitment partner vetting and training, have a measurable positive impact on acceptance rates.

Affordability Top of Mind for International Students and Recruiters

In our survey, we also asked which factors contributed most heavily to study destination decisions. In Fall 2025, four of the top five drivers were related to finances, whether directly鈥攊n the case of cost of living and cost of studying鈥攐r indirectly, relating to students’ ability to work both during and after their studies:¹¹

While “cost of studying” remains the most common factor among students who are considering international study, it’s worth noting that more survey respondents cited this factor as a key driver than at any point since this question was added to the survey.

As the cost of living in many study destinations continues to rise, budget-conscious students may consider less expensive communities in popular countries, or shorter programs like accelerated degrees or graduate diplomas and certificates. Institutions that promote these programs effectively, while illustrating which post-study opportunities students in shorter programs are eligible for, can attract future leaders to their campuses.

As one survey respondent shared:

“In 2026, I expect students to lean more toward technology-driven programs like AI, cybersecurity, and data science, alongside fields such as healthcare and sustainability. Many will prefer flexible study paths鈥攕horter certifications or blended learning鈥攚hile postgraduate demand will remain steady for [these] specializations. Overall, the trend will be more career-oriented and skills-focused.”

In general, the perceived affordability of top study destinations dipped over the last six months with Canada as the single exception. Even given this change, Germany stood above the other five destinations: 77% of respondents agreed it was an affordable option for their students. Ireland was close behind at 69% agreement, and Canada was at 67%:
embed:

While free or low-cost tuition at many public universities is definitely an advantage for Germany when it comes to affordability, academic institutions in each of these destinations can lean on鈥攁nd promote鈥攐ther strengths. These strengths include scholarships for talented international students, guaranteed on-campus housing including family-friendly options, access to a public health plan, or financial assistance through cross-government partnerships. Showing past examples of how co-op programs and other work experience opportunities have built students’ skills and network while they earned a salary is another powerful motivator.

Turning Insights into Strategy with 老九品茶

Thanks to the feedback from international recruitment professionals worldwide, 老九品茶’s RP Pulse Survey is a helpful check-in on our sector. It offers unique insights into what prospective students are thinking about, and what their advisors are hearing day-by-day.

If your institution wants to level up your international recruitment strategy, our team can help. The 老九品茶 platform builds opportunities for academic institutions to engage with and respond to student needs. Whether it’s through data-driven guidance around future program needs based on student interest, hosting lively webinars, or attending our showcase TRW event, our team can help your institution drive student success.

With our market insights, real-time data, and global network of partners, we can help your recruitment team reach tomorrow’s students where they are today.

If you鈥檙e ready to revolutionize your international student enrolment with the smartest platform for global student mobility, contact our Commercial Partnerships team.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. The 老九品茶 Fall 2025 Recruitment Partner Pulse Survey ran from August 19 to September 2, 2025. It received 385 responses from international recruitment professionals in 40 countries.

2. Australia, Canada, Germany, Ireland, the UK, and the US

3. UK Home Office, “” May 12, 2025.

4. This includes respondents who “agreed” or “strongly agreed” the US was an open, safe, and welcoming destination.

5. Here, “disagreed” refers to respondents who “disagreed” or “strongly disagreed.”

6. Inside Higher Education, “” April 7, 2025.

7. The major Anglophone study destinations of Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

8. This open-ended question allowed respondents to share the names of multiple destinations.

9. Campus France, “” Updated Sept. 15, 2025.

10. Jan Petter Myklebust, University World News. “” Aug. 19, 2025.

11. “Cost of living” as a discrete factor was added in the Fall 2025 survey. Prior to that survey, it fit under “cost of studying.” This question had 10 different options to choose from.

The post Survey Shows UK Remains Top Choice Among International Students appeared first on 老九品茶.

Since Q4 2024, we鈥檝e been tracking rebounding international student demand for a UK-based education, when main-applicant applications were up 9% compared to Q4 2023. That trend continued into Q1 2025, when main applicant demand was up 32% year-over-year.

Now, new Q2 2025 data shows this stabilization has continued for the third straight reporting period. Nearly 63,000 main applicants applied for a UK study visa in Q2 2025, a 16% increase over Q2 2024.¹

The UK government鈥檚 builds on an already stringent student visa policy environment by setting out an intention to increase Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) thresholds by 5% across the board. This means universities would need to keep refusal rates below 5% (alongside other BCA thresholds) or else face sanctions. Though time scales are yet to be officially confirmed, we expect the new 90% CAS to enrolment and 95% visa success metrics to take effect from the January 2026 intake and the 90% course completion rate to take effect from early 2027. As a direct result, some institutions have already in so-called 鈥榟igh-risk鈥� countries.

Against this backdrop, understanding where demand is growing and which student populations are achieving strong grant rates has never been more important. Read on to explore the latest trends in student demand, visa outcomes, and what they mean for institutions navigating the new compliance landscape.

UK Study Visa Applications and Issuances Grew For Main Applicants in Q2 2025

Since the pandemic, Q2 has accounted for about 11% of the full-year application total for UK student visas from main applicants. By contrast, Q3 of any given year is typically the UK鈥檚 peak window for study visas, with roughly two-thirds of applications being received and processed in this period.

Although a modest portion of the whole, Q1 and Q2 patterns have often been leading indicators of Q3 results. This means changes in Q1 and Q2 often offer early reads on where institutions can focus or refine their recruitment strategies. With that in mind, let鈥檚 take a look at how demand trended in Q2 2025:

Main applicant study visa demand rose 16% in Q2 2025 compared to the same quarter in 2024, with nearly 63,000 students applying to study in the UK. When combined with the gains seen in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, this renewed demand creates a complex outlook, as the period of volatility that began in mid-2023 has the potential to continue as institutions react to the new BCA constraints.

As with applications, student visa issuances also rose in Q2 2025:

Over 56,000 international students were issued a main applicant study visa in Q2 2025, 24% more than in Q2 2024. However, the 5,300 refusals in Q2 2025 led to a refusal rate three times higher than the same period the previous year. In fact, the number of refusals in Q2 2025 surpassed the total number of refusals in 2021 to 2024 combined (Q2 only).

While institutions have always had to balance recruitment goals with compliance, the new BCA framework significantly raises the stakes. The past three quarters have each had an overall refusal rate of at least 9%, underscoring the degree of pressure institutions now face as they navigate tighter enrolment thresholds and shifting market dynamics. Recruitment teams will have to weigh the strategic need to diversify their campuses鈥攁 key way to reduce reliance on any single market and protect against geopolitical shifts鈥攁gainst the risk that challenges with any particular market could negatively impact overall compliance standing under these stricter rules.

Grant Rates for the 20 Largest Student Populations in the UK in Q2 2025

The good news for UK institutions is that 15 of the UK鈥檚 20 largest student populations achieved grant rates exceeding the 95% BCA threshold last quarter:

Over 15,000 Indian students were issued a main applicant study visa in Q2 2025. This was nearly twice as many as the next largest student population and represented a growth of 44% over Q2 2024. This growth is an encouraging signal of renewed Indian interest after all four major English-speaking destinations experienced demand declines in 2024. Critically, India鈥檚 96% grant rate positions Indian students as a reliable foundation for institutions seeking both enrolment growth and compliance under the stricter BCA standards.

Beyond India, demand also rose across South Asia in Q2 2025. Nepal led the way, with nearly four times as many main applicant study visas as in Q2 2024, and the 94% grant rate for Nepalese students sat within a percentage point of the new BCA threshold. However, while demand from Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka also grew (up 110%, 68%, and 7%, respectively), students from each country saw grant rates fall well below compliance levels after sharp declines compared to Q2 2024. For institutions, South Asia remains indispensable to sustaining campus diversity, but success will hinge on working with trusted partners and ensuring that rising demand translates into genuine, visa-ready students.

The UK鈥檚 rebound in Q2 2025 was global in scope, with strong demand emerging well beyond South Asia. Nigeria鈥檚 recovery was particularly striking as study visa issuances rose 149% year-over-year at a 96% grant rate. This turnaround is especially significant given Nigeria was among the hardest hit by and was at the start of the year. Beyond Nigeria, several markets also combined rising demand with compliance-friendly grant rates. Saudi Arabia (+43% vs. Q2 2024, 97% grant rate), the United States (+20%, 100%), and France (+27%, 99%) each contributed to a broader pattern of stability, underscoring that the UK鈥檚 recovery is fuelled by a wide base of student populations across the world.

Which Emerging Markets Had Grant Rates above 95% in H1 2025?

UK institutions do not have to turn to only their largest student populations to remain compliant with the BCA鈥檚 tighter grant rate expectations. Several emerging student populations met or exceeded a 95% grant rate in the first half of 2025, offering lower-risk growth opportunities that can complement more volatile recruitment channels.

The table below focuses on H1 (January to June) rather than Q2 alone to provide a wider scope given the smaller volume of study visas issued across emerging student populations:³

Europe stands out as one of those strategic opportunities. Five emerging European student populations鈥擭orway, Greece, Cyprus, Italy, and Switzerland鈥攈ad grant rates of 99% or higher in H1 2025. While European demand is a long way from recovering from the impacts of Brexit, the region鈥檚 consistently strong visa outcomes suggest it may play a stabilizing role in institutional portfolios as BCA scrutiny intensifies.

Southeast Asia also shows promise for institutions aiming to increase diversity on campuses. Singapore led the region with a 100% grant rate in H1 2025, while Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar (Burma), and the Philippines each had grant rates of at least 95%. However, it鈥檚 worth noting that only the latter two countries avoided a demand drop compared to H1 2024. Nevertheless, the consistently strong visa outcomes makes this region of the world a compelling foundation for longer-term recruitment strategies that prioritise both student quality and regional diversity.

Additionally, several emerging Latin American (LATAM) countries showed both strong demand growth and visa outcomes. Main applicant study visas issued to students from Mexico, Peru, and Chile grew by 19%, 31%, and 10%, respectively, all with grant rates of 95% or higher. All told, these patterns suggest that institutional resilience under the BCA may come not from shifting focus to a single new region, but rather by cultivating a more distributed set of reliable corridors across the globe.

How 老九品茶 Can Help Your Institution Maintain Campus Diversity

Tighter oversight in the UK is reshaping how institutions think about international enrolment. With refusal thresholds narrowing and new accountability frameworks on the horizon, the risk is that universities retreat toward a handful of 鈥渟afe鈥� markets. While this might safeguard compliance metrics in the short term, it risks undermining campus diversity and leaving institutions exposed to geopolitical or economic shocks in the long term.

老九品茶 is uniquely positioned to help institutions strike a better balance. Our platform connects partners to a wide range of source markets, supported by robust data and compliance-focused tools that strengthen student quality. From leveraging to elevate agent performance to surfacing insights on which markets combine demand with high grant rates, we equip recruitment teams to diversify confidently while maintaining compliance standards.

By embedding these supports into every stage of the student journey, we ensure that rising demand from around the world translates into genuine, well-prepared students who can thrive and complete their programs. For institutions, this means not having to choose between meeting BCA requirements and sustaining the diversity that defines the UK鈥檚 global education brand.

Interested in learning how 老九品茶 can help your institution maintain compliance while strengthening campus diversity? Reach out to your Account Director or connect with our UK commercial partnerships team to discuss tailored strategies for your recruitment goals.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. All data courtesy of the , unless otherwise stated.

2. The refusal rate was the same if dependent applicants were included. The refusal rate was calculated by omitting applications that were withdrawn or lapsed, and then dividing the number of visa refusals by the sum of visas issued and refused.

3. Emerging markets defined here as student populations granted between 100 and 500 main applicant study visas during H1 2025.

The post UK Sees Stabilized International Student Demand for Third Consecutive Quarter appeared first on 老九品茶.

2025 is certain to be a telling year for Australia鈥檚 international education sector. It marks the first calendar year of Australia鈥檚 new visa processing directive (), which manages the 鈥榮oft caps鈥� on international student commencements implemented by the National Planning Levels (NPL). While similar cap policies in Canada have resulted in significant reductions in student demand, Australia has鈥攕o far鈥攂etter weathered these systemic changes.

Back in February, we predicted that Australia would experience a 10% decline in new student visas granted in 2024/25. With full fiscal year data now available,¹ we can see just how close our projections were: granted visas actually dropped 12% year-over-year.² Yet, these declines are in line with the intention of the government鈥檚 directive, lowering incoming international student volumes to match pre-pandemic levels and refocusing students toward Australian universities.

Today, we鈥檒l take a closer look at the early impacts of Australia鈥檚 MD111 by diving into 2024/25 student visa data. We鈥檒l explore how student demand for studying in Australia has changed and which student populations are growing within these cap limitations. Additionally, we鈥檒l detail why planning for continued cap impacts on student demand will be critical for Australian institutions in 2026 and beyond.

Demand for Australian Student Visas Returns to Pre-Pandemic Levels

Throughout 2024, the Australian government debated and discussed legislation to limit the number of new international students beginning programs within the country each year. While the legislation that proposed more formal caps was , the new student limits outlined in the National Planning Level (NPL) were maintained. Through the NPL, indicative allocations were assigned to each university and VET provider for 2025, and student visa processing was prioritized according to MD111.

These changes鈥攁s with any major mobility barriers impacting international students鈥攚ere intended to dampen overall demand. In fact, the Australian government鈥檚 stated goal was to manage growth and sustainability by capping at pre-pandemic levels, setting the overall 2025 NPL target based on 2019 figures.

Based on student visa volumes for the 2024/25 fiscal year, early indications are that student demand has softened in line with these governmental targets:

Due to a 鈥渄ouble cohort鈥� effect鈥攚here students who delayed studying during the pandemic moved forward with their plans in subsequent years鈥擜ustralia鈥檚 international education sector experienced a surge of student interest in 2022/23. Since then, student interest has returned to near pre-pandemic levels, resulting in year-over-year declines.

Granted student visa figures reached just over 210,000 in 2024/25, dropping by 12% compared to the previous year. By contrast, new visa applications lodged fell to around 230,000, down nearly 30% compared to 2023/24. Given that both figures were within less than 2% of 2017/18, early signs indicate that MD111 is functioning as intended to normalize visa volumes.

How Australia鈥檚 Student Caps Compare on the Global Stage

The greater decline in visas lodged could signal weakening beyond the intention of Australia鈥檚 caps. However, we don鈥檛 anticipate that Australia will experience the same level of student interest weakening that Canada has since their cap implementation in 2024. Through the first six months of Australia鈥檚 international student cap in 2025, new visas lodged fell by 18% year-over-year. During the first six months of 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 caps in 2024, new visas lodged dropped by 48% compared to the same period in 2023.³

Australia鈥檚 education sector better weathered the more restrictive policies on student mobility because the NPL and MD111 are more targeted than the Canadian equivalent.Indeed, the Australian government decided on specific institutional cap levels and promised faster visa processing. Additionally, Australia experienced more limited student population growth post-pandemic.

As a result, we anticipate that 2024/25 will be a 鈥榬eset鈥� year for Australia鈥檚 international education sector, with student volumes returning to their modest pre-pandemic growth trend. Yet, any further reductions in student demand in 2025/26, or a significant shift in visa grant rates, could jeopardize the ability of Australian universities and VET providers to reach their allocations. For Australian institutions, this means it鈥檚 vital to reinforce and expand diversification efforts, mitigating the potential impacts of a downturn from any one student population.

Australian Universities Account for Majority of New Student Visas

MD111 and the NLP set allocations for both universities and VET providers, although the . This allocation balance reinforces a trend that has evolved since 2022/23: international student demand in Australia is increasingly focused on higher ed.

In 2022/23, higher ed accounted for around 60% of all student visas granted to primary offshore applicants. However, in 2024/25, this proportion had shifted to nearly 75%:

While visas granted for studies at higher ed institutions have remained fairly stable over the past three years, the number of international students pursuing ELICOS and VET studies have fallen sharply. Due in part to increased visa fees, higher financial requirements, and the impact of MD107,⁴ student demand has shifted away from shorter courses in Australia. Many students from Latin America and other key emerging regions have traditionally favoured shorter study options. As Australia sees reduced demand for programs like VET and ELICOS, these student populations are enrolling elsewhere, leading to a less diverse international student mix in Australia as a whole.

Australian Government States Institutions On Track to Reach 2025 Allocations

Australia鈥檚 2025 NPL allocations were set according to new international student commencements per calendar year, not based on student visa volumes per fiscal year.⁵ As such, it is still early to evaluate the relative success of Australia鈥檚 indicative allocations. Yet initial signs indicate that many institutions鈥攅specially universities鈥攁re on track to reach their 2025 targets.

The Australian Department of Education that as of August 1, 2025, the pipeline of indicative students (including students who have yet to begin their studies) is at 96% of the total National Planning Levels. Of Australia鈥檚 38 public universities, 26 had already reached 80% of their total allocation, aligning with the visa prioritisation threshold implemented in MD111. By contrast, only 153 of Australia鈥檚 977 VET providers had achieved the same threshold:⁶

Although the apparent challenges for VET institutions should not be overlooked, Australia鈥檚 international sector experience with international student caps thus far may result in a marked difference from 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚. And, vitally, it may demonstrate that balancing stability and growth is possible through limited and targeted legislative measures.

Australia鈥檚 2026 National Planning Levels Include Focus on Southeast Asia

Moving forward, it鈥檚 likely that Australia鈥檚 higher ed sector will continue to claim the majority of granted student visas. In fact, this weighting is already reflected in the recently released , which details that the total cap space will increase from 270,000 to 295,000. Overall, the good news for all Australian institutions is that no providers will receive lower 2026 allocations than they did for 2025.

As part of the planned update to the Ministerial Direction, the Australian government has also outlined a new strategic priority: increasing engagement with students from Southeast Asia. Australia is a natural destination for international students from Southeast Asia who wish to stay closer to home.

Yet, new Southeast Asian student populations have fallen in recent years. The overall decline in granted student visas from 2023/24 to 2024/25 was 12%, the drop in such visas for Southeast Asian students, nearly twice as much (21%). In fact, only two Southeast Asian student populations grew over the last year:

Many Southeast Asian student populations experienced softened year-over-year demand exceeding 30%. This is largely tied to the overall reductions in VET and ELICOS enrollment, programs that used to attract many students from across Southeast Asia.

Looking ahead, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines all present clear opportunities for increased student flow and diversification in 2025 and beyond. These countries have large, , and many students have family connections in Australia. With support networks already in place, students from these Southeast Asia countries are more likely to be better equipped to handle cultural and financial challenges and stay focused on their education.

Learn more about factors driving Vietnam鈥檚 stability and growth as a major student population.

Demand Rising from Key Student Populations Across Asia

Although the 2026 NLP鈥檚 priority is aimed exclusively at students from Southeast Asia, Australian institutions have experienced increased student demand from across Asia over the last year. Diverse student populations across Asia have helped drive stability in 2024/25, and could become focus areas for institutions looking to ensure they utilize their full allocations in 2026:

Of these top ten growing student populations, only two were from outside Asia (Papua New Guinea and USA). As Australian institutions aim to expand their recruitment efforts to protect against volatility, students from countries including Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka can help drive sustainable campus diversity. Bangladeshi students, in particular, were one of the only student populations to lodge and receive more visas each year for the last five years.

Looking Ahead to 2026

Since institutions have already received their indicative 2026 allotments, and a new Ministerial Direction is expected shortly to align with the NPL, Australian providers are well placed to begin planning for next year. Student demand may continue to decline and jeopardize cap allocation usage in 2026, but early evidence shows that Australia could weather the implementation of international student caps, achieving sustainability and creating the potential for modest growth.

As we look ahead to next year, it鈥檚 important to note that the levers of interest that draw students to Australia haven鈥檛 changed. Australian immigration pathways and work rights have remained largely constant, and the NPL does not impact overall migration levels. Australian institutions can reassure students that Australia remains a welcoming destination for studying abroad by communicating these key facts to potential international students. By remaining focused on student success, institutions can maximize their potential in 2026 and beyond.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. All data reported according to Australian governmental financial years, which span from July of one year to June of the next year (for example, July 2023 to June 2024 was the 2023/24 year), unless otherwise noted.

2. All data courtesy of the . The data used for this article includes subclass 500 and subclass 570 to 576 visas lodged or granted to primary applicants located outside Australia only.

3. According to data on the new number of new study permit applications received by IRCC.

4. Ministerial Direction 107 was replaced by Ministerial Direction 111 at the end of 2024. was a government directive introduced in 2023 that prioritised processing student visas based on the assumed risk level of education providers and the student鈥檚 country of citizenship.

5. are measured by the number of programs started by new international students in a given calendar year. A student can record more than one commencement if they begin more than one program within the relevant period.

6. Of these 977 VET providers, 762 (78%) have a total 2025 cap allocation of 100 spaces or less.

The post Australia’s Caps Refocus Student Demand Toward University Programs appeared first on 老九品茶.

Last year, the introduction of 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 international student caps led to a notable decline in study permit¹ approvals. While overall study permit approval rates had hovered around 60% from 2021 to 2023, they dropped to just 48% in 2024. When we last looked at the main causes for these refusals, we found many applicants were refused because immigration officers were unconvinced that the applicant would leave Canada after their studies.

Over the 2024 calendar year, Canadian study permits were most commonly refused due to the same perception: that the student wouldn’t leave Canada at the end of their stay. Additionally, many students were refused due to insufficient financial support. The popularity of these refusal reasons emphasizes how important it is that applicants clearly and persuasively outline their economic ability to study and live in Canada. It’s also important to remember that there are many reasons why a study permit could be refused, and immigration officers may select more than one reason for their refusal.

Here, we鈥檒l look at full-year 2024 data鈥攖he latest available鈥攖o see how study permit refusals have evolved. We鈥檒l also explore general refusal trends, shifts due to policy updates, and some common refusal reasons related to document authenticity and application completeness.

Top Reasons for Canadian Student Visa Application Rejection

In 2024, almost 290,000 study permit applications were refused and just under 268,000 were approved.³ Canadian immigration officers gave 81 different reasons for these study permit refusals, and per IRCC data for full-year 2024, an average of 2.7 reasons were given for each study permit refusal.⁴

The most common refusal reason cited last year, appearing in just over 75% of refusals, was that the immigration officer was unconvinced the applicant would leave Canada at the end of their stay, based on their travel history. While reviewers at IRCC understand that some future students hope to gain work experience in Canada after graduation, including through 颁补苍补诲补鈥檚 Post-Graduation Work Permit program, the extensive use of this reason last year suggests that many applicants are perceived as having permanent residency as their primary purpose, instead of study.

IRCC’s position on dual intent continues to evolve, as outlined by a 2023 which noted that while students鈥� intention to study must be genuine, wanting to work in Canada after graduation isn’t a conflicting purpose. However, several measures were also taken to moderate the total number of incoming students last year. These included caps on study permit applications, the closure of the Student Direct Stream, and the inclusion of temporary resident targets in the . These shifts in the international education landscape signal that IRCC officers are applying an elevated scrutiny to study permit applications, impacting refusal rates.

The chart below shows how the most common refusal grounds for study permits have shifted:⁵

Access to sufficient financial assets rose to become the second-most common refusal reason in 2024, edging past a perceived inconsistent purpose of visit.

Adequate funds was a common theme across several top study permit refusal reasons. This is likely tied to , which elevated minimum proof of financial support from $10,000 in 2023 to $20,635 in 2024. As such, it’s vital for applicants to clearly show their ability to pay for their living and studying expenses. A good way to do this is by including a minimum of six months of bank statements, with a full transaction history, as supporting documents with a study permit application. Officers will often look for steady income over that time, versus large or erratic deposits. Prospective students may also consider showing proof of funds with a Guaranteed Investment Certificate or GIC.

Beyond financial refusals, 鈥渙ther鈥� or “unspecified” is used as a refusal reason when immigration officers wish to share more details in the application refusal letter. Its use has tapered off over the past four years as more specific reasons have become available.

Starting in July 2025, . This update aims to heighten transparency across the study permit application process.

How Perceived Authenticity Affects Study Permit Refusals

When we look at post-pandemic study permit trends, some refusal reasons linked to authenticity and applicant honesty are rising:

While these reasons account for a small percentage of study permit refusals, they still affect thousands of students. For example, in 2024, over 13,000 applicants were refused a study permit based on misrepresenting or withholding facts.

The most common reason related to authenticity was that the applicant was found inadmissible to Canada “for directly or indirectly misrepresenting or withholding material facts relating to a relevant matter which induces or could induce an error in the administration of [the Immigrant and Refugee Protection] Act.”⁶ Use of this reason has risen year-over-year since 2021, impacting nearly 5% of all cases in 2024.

Meanwhile, other applications were refused based on the reviewer believing documents were inauthentic, or the applicant didn’t answer questions truthfully. Yet, it’s encouraging to see that immigration officials believed that fewer inauthentic documents were submitted in 2024 versus 2023. This is likely thanks, in part, to the integration of modern, AI-driven tools like those used by 老九品茶 which check document accuracy and build trust in the study permit application process.

Thousands of Potential Students Refused Due to Missing Documentation

The Canadian study permit application process is always changing. That’s why it’s important for institutions and recruitment professionals to know when new requirements鈥攍ike biometrics鈥攁re introduced so that the students they’re working with can submit successful applications. Last year, these documents were the most commonly missed:

Study permit applications can take a long time to assemble. It’s vital that students start working on them as early as possible. Every refusal reason above is entirely preventable, given enough time to review the application for completeness.

Having others review study permit applications can also prevent regrettable permit refusals. Whether it’s through working with a recruitment professional who understands the process and can watch for common errors, or using a platform like 老九品茶 which automatically reviews submitted documents, an extra set of eyes can make the difference between acceptance and refusal.

The 老九品茶 platform uses carefully calibrated processes to ensure documents are legible, the statement of purpose is unique, and the student’s passport and English proficiency test scores are verified. If there’s a concern, our Customer Experience team is flagged and the application is reviewed manually. This can lead to a follow-up with the student for more information. Or, in more serious cases and after review by a second team member, it can result in the application’s cancellation. When this happens, our team follows up with the student and recruitment professional with why the application was cancelled. Plus, we carefully vet and train the global network of recruitment partners we work with to ensure their students receive timely, accurate information and guidance.

This attention to detail means admissions teams will spend less time reviewing weak or incomplete applications. It also means study permit applications reviewed by 老九品茶 have a much higher success rate. In fact, the average study permit approval rate for 老九品茶 students was 82% last year鈥�34 percentage points higher than the general approval rate.

Setting Future Students Up for Success

Financial capacity was linked to many of the most common reasons for Canadian study permit rejections in 2024. This shows how important it is for aspiring international students to clearly illustrate their financial readiness to live and study in Canada.

One of the best ways students can show proof of finances is with a Guaranteed Investment Certificate, or GIC. 老九品茶 is proud to work in partnership with the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and TD Bank to offer students a way to strengthen their study permit application. 老九品茶 also offers tailored study abroad loans through six global banking partners.

Guiding students through the study permit application process is a crucial task, whether you’re a recruitment professional or part of an academic team. To foster success, it’s vital to offer resources which are current and trustworthy. Also, when working with prospective students, encourage them to begin their study permit applications as soon as possible. This approach gives students ample time to collect any supporting documents, arrange for necessary translations, and write a strong statement of purpose鈥攁ll without the stress of a looming deadline.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. The terms student visa and study permit are generally used interchangeably for Canadian international students. Rather than student visas, Canada provides accepted international students with study permits, which allow those students to enrol in classes at Canadian institutions. When a student is accepted for a study permit, they are also usually provided with a visitor visa, which allows that student to enter Canada for their studies.

2. Data is courtesy of , unless otherwise stated.

3. Most study permit applications are either accepted or refused, but a small percentage are withdrawn during the application process.

4. Over the 2024 calendar year, 289,809 study permits were refused. 778,113 instances of refusal grounds were given over that time frame. 778,113 梅 289,809 = 2.685, thus 2.7 reasons (on average) per refusal.

5. Study permit refusal reasons evolve yearly as new ones are introduced and others are phased out. For example, data for the reason “no significant family ties outside Canada” only dates back to 2022.

6. Government of Canada, Justice Laws Website. “.” Accessed Aug. 20, 2025.

The post Top Reasons for Canadian Study Permit Refusals in 2024 appeared first on 老九品茶.