Since 2024, the 鈥淏ig Four鈥� anglophone destination countries have been implementing policies that intend to curb international student numbers to levels those countries deem sustainable. Canada issued just , a year-over-year decline of 65%, and we鈥檝e projected that the US saw a 31% decline over the same period, with about 270,000 F-1 student visas granted last year.1 Meanwhile, the UK granted 410,000 main applicant student visas in 2025, but this 3% year-over-year growth masks that applications declined 21% in Q4 2025, with that during the first four months of 2026.2
By comparison, have resulted in a much more gradual shift in student populations. Australia granted 190,000 student visas to offshore, primary applicants for tertiary education in calendar year 2025.3 This was 12% below the previous calendar year. Similarly, the 38,000 student visas granted in Q1 of calendar year 2026 represented a decline of just 8% compared to Q1 of 2025. While these declines are not without challenges for Australian institutions and the students who want to study there, Australia nonetheless has avoided the demand freefall that has hit its competitors.
Against this backdrop, we鈥檙e diving into data from Australia鈥檚 2025/26 fiscal year.4 Discover how many student visas we forecast Australia granting this fiscal year, what that means for the sector鈥檚 various study levels, and how demand has changed among student populations around the world.
Key Insights at a Glance
- 老九品茶 projects that Australia will grant about 193,000 visas to offshore students for the 2025/26 fiscal year.
- Only 42% of primary, offshore applicants were granted a student visa for vocational education and training during the first 10 months of the 2025/26 fiscal year. If this approval rate persists through the rest of the fiscal year, it would be an all-time low for the study level.
- We expect that Australia will grant 9% more student visas to postgraduate students in 2025/26 than the previous fiscal year.
- The number of student visas granted to Nepalese and Bangladeshi applicants was up significantly during the first 10 months of 2025/26. However, approval rates fell by 34 and 24 percentage points, respectively.
Australia Expected To Grant 193,000 Student Visas for 2025/26
In our analysis of the 2024/25 fiscal year, we wrote that early signs indicated that Ministerial Direction 111 () was functioning as intended in normalizing visa volumes to pre-pandemic levels. The number of student visas granted in the 2024/25 fiscal year was down 12% year-over-year, returning to 2017/18 levels in the process.
For the 2025/26 fiscal year, we鈥檙e projecting that Australia will grant a similar number of student visas as it did a decade ago:
Australia granted 151,000 student visas to primary, offshore students from July through April of the 2025/26 fiscal year. This was 8% below the same period of the previous fiscal year. Extrapolated over the full fiscal year, we expect about 193,000 student visas will be granted to offshore students for 2025/26, a figure between 2015/16 and 2016/17 levels.
While Australia has brought its number of student visas down at a much more measured pace than its other major Anglophone counterparts, the process continues to be a delicate balancing act. 50% of respondents to 老九品茶鈥檚 Spring 2026 Student Advisor Pulse Survey indicated that a destination鈥檚 welcomeness to international students was a top factor when considering where to study. And some experts are warning that risks Australia losing ground on this key factor.
鈥淭he perception taking hold offshore is that Australia is an unpredictable, expensive and increasingly unwelcoming destination.鈥�
鈥� Neil Fitzroy, May 22, 2026.5
Nearly 3 of every 4 Student Visas Granted For Higher Education
Historically, the higher ed study level typically accounted for about 55% to 60% of student visas granted to offshore, primary applicants. Under Australia鈥檚 recent policy changes, the proportion of granted visas for this study level has grown:
We鈥檙e projecting about 139,000 student visas will be granted to primary, offshore higher ed applicants over the full 2025/26 fiscal year. While this total would be about 9% less than the previous fiscal year, it would also represent nearly three in every four student visas granted鈥攁 similar proportion as in 2024/25.
Meanwhile, the postgraduate level has seen an influx of demand in 2025/26. We鈥檙e projecting that about 5,900 primary, offshore applicants will be granted a student visa in 2025/26, which would be an increase of 9% over 2024/25. We expect 3% of granted student visas in 2025/26 will be for the postgraduate level, up half a percentage point year-over-year.
Visa grant rates have contributed to this proportional shift. During the first 10 months of the 2025/26 fiscal year, only 42% of Vocational Education and Training (VET) applicants were granted a student visa. If this rate holds for the full fiscal year, it would be an all-time low. Likewise, while the 78% grant rate for English Language Intensive Courses for Overseas Students (ELICOS) applicants is in line with the previous two fiscal years, it鈥檚 much lower than historical rates.
How Has Demand Changed Among Australia鈥檚 Top 50 Student Populations?
New policies and declining grant rates are contributing to changes in demand among Australia鈥檚 top student populations. The table below shows visa trends for the top 50 student populations during the first 10 months of the 2025/26 fiscal year:
Chinese and Indian students continue to be Australia鈥檚 top two student populations. Nearly 43,000 Chinese students were granted a student visa during the first 10 months of 2025/26, more than double the 20,000 granted to Indian students. These figures represent declines of 21% and 16%, respectively, over the same period in 2024/25. Their story differs in grant rate, as the 95% approval rate for Chinese students was 2 percentage points higher year-over-year, whereas the 64% for Indian students was 15 percentage points lower.
Demand has grown across several key student populations in South Asia and Africa. In South Asia, over 10,000 Nepalese students and 8,300 Bangladeshi applicants were granted a student visa from July to April of 2025/26, an increase of 36% and 18% year-over-year, respectively. However, grant rates for both student populations fell significantly over this period, dropping by 34 and 24 percentage points, respectively.
The number of student visas granted to Kenyan and Nigerian students rose 163% and 148%, respectively, over this period.
Last year we flagged that increased visa fees, higher financial requirements, and other regulatory updates were impacting students from Latin America and other regions of the world that traditionally favour shorter study options. This trend continued in 2025/26. The 2,900 student visas granted to Brazilian applicants鈥擜ustralia鈥檚 11th largest student population鈥攄uring the first 10 months of 2025/26 represent a 15% decline over the same period of the previous fiscal year. It was also 71% below the same period of the 2022/23 fiscal year. Likewise, demand among Colombian students has collapsed. In 2022/23, nearly 21,000 Colombian applicants were granted a student visa between July and April. But over the same period in 2025/26, only 1,100 applicants were granted a student visa, a staggering 95% decline.
Leveraging Data and Technology to Ensure Australia Continues to Remain a Top Study Destination
While Australia has successfully navigated a more gradual deceleration of international student visa numbers than its major competitors, maintaining this steady approach requires thoughtful policy design and student outreach. Campus stability relies heavily on predictable recruitment environments, yet frequent regulatory adjustments can quickly alter international perceptions. As visa grant rates shift, institutions must quickly pivot to identify high-intent applicants who match the updated criteria. As part of an institution, navigating these regulatory updates successfully depends on access to early market signals that reveal changing demand before applications are ever built.
To meet this need, the 老九品茶 platform leverages predictive technology and deep search insights to help Australian institutions identify and connect with top talent worldwide. By analyzing real-time student preferences and changing regional patterns, recruitment teams can proactively align their international outreach to match the right students with the right programs. This data-driven approach allows universities to optimize their resources and provide targeted application support to prospective learners early in their journey.
Connect with our Commercial Partnerships Team to learn how these data insights can strengthen your institutional recruitment strategy.
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FOOTNOTES:
1. Canadian study permit data is sourced from (IRCC). US student visa data is sourced from the . Note that US calendar year data is updated only to September 2025; our forecast for the US combines the January鈥揝eptember actual data with historical October鈥揇ecember trends.
2. UK visa data is sourced from the .
3. Australian student visa data is sourced from the . Tertiary studies omits student visas granted for the schools and foreign affairs sectors. All uses of Australian data in this article are for primary, offshore students only.
4. Australia reports its visa data by fiscal year, July to June. We analyze this data by calendar year when comparing against other destinations, and by fiscal year when looking at only the Australian sector.
